Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro Stay in Virtual Tie in New Brazil Poll

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains two percentage points ahead of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff ahead of October's presidential election, according to a new Datafolha poll released Thursday.

The survey found the leftist president receiving 47 percent of the vote to the right-wing senator's 45 percent in a simulated runoff. Last week, Datafolha had Lula ahead 46 percent to 44 percent, meaning the race has shifted only slightly.

Because the two-point gap falls within the poll's margin of error of 2 percentage points, the runoff matchup remains a technical tie. That result reinforces the view that Brazil's electorate is still deeply divided and that neither side has opened a durable advantage.

In a first-round scenario, Lula leads with 40 percent, followed by Bolsonaro at 36 percent. Augusto Cury takes 5 percent, Ronaldo Caiado 4 percent and Renan Santos 3 percent. The previous Datafolha poll showed Lula at 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 36 percent.

Flavio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. The senator's presence near the top of the race highlights how much of the former president's political base remains intact, even as his father serves time.

Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term as Brazil's president. Under Brazilian election rules, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of valid votes in the first round, the two frontrunners advance to a runoff.

Datafolha surveyed 2,002 people between September 22 and 23. Earlier this week, two other polls showed similarly close results. A Quaest poll released Monday put Bolsonaro at 42 percent and Lula at 41 percent in a potential runoff. A BTG Pactual/Nexus poll had Lula at 46 percent and Bolsonaro at 45 percent.

With the first round still ahead, the latest numbers suggest the race could hinge on small shifts among undecided voters and on whether outside candidates can gain traction. For now, the contest between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro remains tight, with both campaigns likely to focus on turnout, undecided voters and the runoff math.