ManpowerGroup Sees 'Stabilization' in Q4 as Demand Firms, Cost Cuts Take Hold
Global staffing leader ManpowerGroup (NYSE: MAN) signaled a tentative turning point in its latest earnings report, with fourth-quarter results pointing to a stabilizing market after a prolonged period of uncertainty. Chair and CEO Jonas Prising described a "clear shift to stabilization" during the company's Q4 2025 earnings call, attributing the improvement to firmer enterprise demand and stringent cost management, though he cautioned the company is "not yet calling a broad-based recovery."
The company posted Q4 revenue of $4.7 billion, representing 2% organic constant currency growth. System-wide revenue, inclusive of franchisees, reached $5.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $100 million, with a margin of 2.1%, meeting the midpoint of guidance and matching the prior year's level—a sign of resilience in a challenging environment.
"Clients remain deliberate, but we are seeing the green shoots," Prising noted, highlighting steady engagement levels and sequential improvement in key indicators like associate assignments in the U.S. and France. He singled out Italy as a standout performer on both growth and margin, while acknowledging the recovery's pace will vary geographically.
CFO Jack McGinnis reported a gross profit margin of 16.3%, slightly below guidance due primarily to weaker-than-expected permanent recruitment activity in Europe—a segment he described as being "at historically low levels" as a percentage of total profit. This continued pressure on the higher-margin perm business remains a headwind, though a rebound there is seen as a future catalyst for margin expansion.
Regionally, the picture was mixed. The Americas saw constant currency revenue rise 5% to $1.1 billion. Southern Europe, a critical market, returned to growth with a 1% increase to $2.2 billion, ending a 13-quarter streak of declines. Northern Europe revenue dipped 1% to $819 million, though the U.K. showed "significant sequential improvement." The Asia-Pacific Middle East region was a bright spot, growing 6%.
A central theme of the call was the company's aggressive push on productivity and digitization. Prising emphasized the rollout of AI tools, including an integrated AI Recruiter Toolkit now active in over 12 markets, which he credited with helping boost placement rates by 7%. "We are moving from automation to augmentation," said President and Chief Strategy Officer Becky Frankiewicz, noting client inquiries are increasingly focused on how AI will reshape workforce composition and flexibility.
On costs, the company delivered a 4% constant currency reduction in SG&A while achieving organic growth, a feat Prising tied to "structural reductions and tighter discretionary spending." McGinnis outlined ongoing transformation investments, including back-office programs and planned front-office upgrades in North America, costs for which will be separately tracked.
Looking ahead, management provided first-quarter 2026 EPS guidance of $0.45 to $0.55. Revenue is projected to range from a 1% decline to 3% growth on a constant currency basis. The company reaffirmed its longer-term ambition to reach an adjusted EBITDA margin between 4.5% and 5%, predicated on both economic recovery and the fruits of its efficiency drives.
Market Voices
David Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Advisors: "The stabilization narrative is credible. Returning Southern Europe to growth is no small feat, and their cost discipline is evident. The 2% organic growth might seem modest, but in this context, it's a positive inflection. The key will be sustaining this momentum into Q1."
Maria Rodriguez, Senior Analyst at ClearView Research: "The perm recruitment weakness is concerning and caps near-term margin potential. However, their AI investments appear to be more than just buzzwords—they're yielding measurable productivity gains. If the macro environment cooperates, those tools could drive significant operating leverage."
Leo Crawford, Independent Market Commentator: "Stabilization? This looks more like stagnation dressed up in corporate jargon. A 2.1% EBITDA margin is pathetic for this industry. They're celebrating not getting worse, while perm—their profit engine—is in the ditch. The 'AI toolkit' is a distraction from fundamental underperformance."
Anika Sharma, HR Technology Consultant: "Manpower's insights on client demand for hybrid workforce models—blending temp, perm, gig, and AI—are spot-on. They're positioning themselves as advisors, not just vendors. That strategic pivot, powered by their tech investments, could be their real differentiator in the next cycle."