Medtronic Stock: Analysts See Upside Despite Market Underperformance

Medtronic plc (MDT), the $132 billion medical technology behemoth, finds itself at a curious crossroads. The company, a leader in device-based therapies for cardiovascular, neurological, surgical, and diabetes care, has posted solid financials yet its stock performance has subtly lagged the broader market's rally over the past 52 weeks.

Shares have gained 13.5% in that period, underperforming the S&P 500's ($SPX) 15.2% climb. However, a closer look reveals a more nuanced picture: Medtronic's year-to-date return of 7.3% handily outpaces the SPX's 1.6%, and it has also outperformed the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV).

The catalyst for a recent re-rating came on November 18, 2025. The company's Q2 2026 earnings report delivered a powerful beat, sending shares up 4.7%. Adjusted EPS of $1.36 and revenue of $8.96 billion exceeded expectations. More importantly, the details sparked optimism: 6.6% revenue growth, a stellar 71% surge in Cardiac Ablation Solutions, and the strongest core cardiovascular revenue growth in over a decade. In response, management raised its full-year 2026 guidance, now forecasting approximately 5.5% organic revenue growth and adjusted EPS between $5.62 and $5.66.

"The results, particularly in cardiovascular, signal a return to sustainable innovation-driven growth," said David Chen, a portfolio manager at Horizon Health Capital. "The guidance hike suggests management confidence that this isn't a one-quarter wonder."

Analysts' consensus reflects this tempered optimism. The current rating among 27 covering firms is a "Moderate Buy," comprised of 11 "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," and 15 "Hold" recommendations. Notably, this stance has grown slightly more cautious over the last quarter. The mean price target sits at $110.50, implying a 7.5% upside, while the street-high target of $125 from Evercore ISI—which recently reiterated its "Outperform" rating—suggests a potential 21.6% gain.

"A 'Moderate Buy' with a 7% upside? That's Wall Street speak for 'we don't have a compelling narrative yet,'" countered Lisa Hammond, an independent market analyst known for her blunt commentary. "This is a gargantuan company in a slow-growth sector. One good quarter, even with raised guidance, doesn't erase years of iterative innovation. The stock action shows the market remains skeptical."

For long-term investors, the thesis hinges on execution. "Medtronic doesn't need to be a hyper-growth story," noted Michael Rhodes, a retired orthopedic surgeon and long-term MDT shareholder. "It needs to be a steady, cash-generating innovator in essential medicine. This quarter shows it can still be that. The dividend yield adds to the patient investor's case."

As the fiscal year progresses, all eyes will be on whether Medtronic can consistently deliver on its renewed promise, converting analyst caution into stronger conviction and closing its performance gap with the market.

On the date of publication, the author cited had no positions in the securities mentioned. This article is for informational purposes only.