Medvedev Warns of Global Alarm as New START Expiry Looms, Threatening First Unchecked Nuclear Era in Decades
MOSCOW, Feb 2 (Reuters) – The looming expiration of the New START nuclear arms control treaty without a ready replacement should sound global alarm bells, a senior Russian security official warned on Thursday, suggesting the world’s largest atomic powers could soon operate without mutual constraints for the first time in half a century.
In an exclusive interview at his residence outside Moscow with Reuters, the state TASS news agency, and Russian military blogger WarGonzo, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, framed the treaty’s potential lapse as a historic regression. "While I am not saying this immediately spells catastrophe or that nuclear war will break out, it should nonetheless alarm everyone," Medvedev stated. "We are facing the prospect of the two largest nuclear arsenals having no agreed limits—a scenario not seen since the early 1970s."
Medvedev, who served as Russia’s president from 2008 to 2012, emphasized that arms control pacts like New START serve a purpose far beyond merely capping warhead numbers. "These treaties play a crucial role as instruments of verification and as channels for dialogue," he explained. "They provide a critical element of predictability and a baseline of trust between major nuclear powers, even during periods of tension."
Background & Analysis: The New START treaty, signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, is set to expire in February 2026. It caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and launchers for both the United States and Russia. Its potential collapse comes amid severely strained bilateral relations over the war in Ukraine and the suspension of mutual inspections. Analysts fear a return to an unconstrained nuclear arms race, with both nations modernizing their arsenals and developing new delivery systems outside any bilateral framework.
Reactions & Commentary:
Dr. Anya Petrova, Senior Fellow at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy: "Medvedev’s warning, while dramatic, underscores a real and gathering crisis. The diplomatic machinery for nuclear risk reduction has ground to a halt. Without a functioning treaty, we lose transparency and enter a dangerous phase of assumptions and worst-case scenario planning."
Markus Schmidt, Berlin-based Foreign Policy Analyst: "This is a calculated move to place the onus of ‘alarm’ on the West. Russia has already suspended its participation in the treaty’s verification regime. The statement seems aimed at shaping the narrative ahead of 2026, positioning Moscow as the responsible party should negotiations fail."
Colonel James O’Donnell (Ret.), former U.S. arms control negotiator: "It’s pure brinkmanship. They’re waving the specter of nuclear anarchy while actively undermining the very agreement that prevents it. This isn’t a warning; it’s a threat designed to extract concessions elsewhere. The world should be alarmed, yes—but by the actions, not just the words."
Elena Voronina, Moscow-based political blogger: "Finally, someone states the obvious! The West has been systematically dismantling the global security architecture. If they think they can contain Russia without rules, they are delusional. Medvedev is right to call out this hypocrisy before it’s too late."
(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Tom Hogue. Additional background and analysis by Reuters Global Security Desk.)