‘Melania’ Documentary Posts Record Opening, But Amazon’s $75M Bet Faces Long Road to Profit
In a weekend that defied critical pans and industry expectations, Amazon MGM Studios’ documentary Melania—an intimate portrait of the former First Lady in the lead-up to Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration—opened to $7 million at the domestic box office. The figure marks the strongest debut for a non‑concert documentary in ten years. Yet behind the headline-grabbing number lies a stark financial reality: the film must clear a towering $75 million hurdle to break even.
Directed by Brett Ratner, Melania drew audiences despite withering reviews (it holds a 10% critics’ score on Rotten Tomatoes). Amazon acquired the film for $40 million—$28 million of which reportedly went directly to Melania Trump—and backed it with an additional $35 million marketing spend, a sum that industry veterans describe as “astronomical” for a documentary. By comparison, Searchlight’s Oscar‑winning Summer of Soul cost $15 million and grossed $3.7 million lifetime.
“This isn’t a play for box‑office profit—it’s a strategic branding exercise,” said Jeff Bock, senior analyst at Exhibitor Relations. “Amazon is buying access, leverage, and viral conversation. Melania is a corporate chess move, with a human subject as the piece.”
The documentary’s performance was heavily regional. While pre‑weekend projections estimated a $3‑5 million launch across 1,700 theaters, strong turnout in conservative‑leaning markets—including Dallas, Houston, Orlando, Tampa, and Fort Myers—propelled the film past forecasts. Luke Parker Bowles, whose Cinema Lab operates The Cañon theater in Colorado, noted that exit polls showed audiences split between political alignment and personal curiosity, with some citing a lack of other new releases.
But the path ahead is uncertain. Melania faces immediate competition from the Super Bowl weekend, followed by the wide release of the star‑driven Wuthering Heights adaptation. Comscore PostTrak data reveals 72% of the opening weekend audience was over 55 and 72% female, suggesting limited crossover appeal.
Industry observers widely interpret the theatrical run as a loss‑leader campaign to build buzz before the film—and an accompanying docuseries—lands on Prime Video. “We see this as a long‑tail lifecycle,” said Kevin Wilson, head of domestic theatrical distribution at Amazon MGM Studios. “The momentum is a first step toward long‑term value on our service.”
Not everyone is convinced. “Spending $75 million on a documentary in this climate is just outrageous,” one veteran documentary producer remarked. Yet Amazon’s financial scale allows it to absorb risks that would cripple traditional studios.
Viewpoint: Voices from the Industry
Marcus Thorne, Film Finance Analyst: “From a pure ROI standpoint, this is a misfire. But Amazon isn’t measuring success in ticket sales alone. They’re building a library asset and generating subscriber chatter—metrics that matter more in their ecosystem.”
Rebecca Shaw, Documentary Filmmaker: “As a filmmaker, it’s disheartening to see such resources funneled into a project with limited artistic ambition. It sidelines worthy independent stories that struggle for funding.”
Linda Garcia, Political Commentator: “This is a brilliantly cynical move. Amazon knows exactly which demographics will engage—whether in admiration or outrage. It’s not a film; it’s a calculated provocation wrapped as content.”
David Park, Theater Owner in Austin, TX: “Our screens were full all weekend. Love it or hate it, people are talking. In today’s market, that’s a win.”