MicroStrategy Shares Hit 17-Month Low Amid Bitcoin Volatility and Analyst Concerns
MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR), the enterprise software company turned Bitcoin behemoth, finds its stock under intense pressure, trading this week at levels not seen since late 2024. The decline comes despite the firm's unwavering commitment to its crypto treasury strategy, underscored by a fresh $264.1 million purchase of 2,932 Bitcoin earlier this week.
The company, led by executive chairman and Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor, now holds an unprecedented 712,647 BTC, valued at over $54 billion at the time of acquisition. This colossal stash dwarfs that of its nearest publicly traded competitor and solidifies MicroStrategy's unique position as a de facto Bitcoin proxy for equity investors.
However, this very strength has become a source of vulnerability. As Bitcoin faced a sharp sell-off on January 29th, MSTR shares were hit disproportionately hard, briefly touching $139.36—a low not seen in over a year. The stock has shed nearly 58% of its value over the past 12 months.
Analysts are divided on the path forward. While firms like Cantor Fitzgerald maintain an "Overweight" rating, others have slashed price targets. Mizuho's Dan Dolev reduced his target to $403 from $484, citing near-term pressure from Bitcoin's price weakness and broader geopolitical risks affecting crypto assets. TD Cowen similarly cut its target, warning of strain on key performance metrics.
A critical gauge of MicroStrategy's market perception, its Market Net Asset Value (mNAV), recently hovered near 1.05. This ratio compares the company's market value to the per-share value of its Bitcoin holdings. An mNAV close to 1 suggests the stock is trading almost purely on the value of its crypto treasury, with investors assigning little to no premium for its underlying software business or future strategy.
This precarious valuation nearly led to its exclusion from major indices like MSCI, which recently granted a reprieve for companies with digital asset-heavy balance sheets. All eyes are now on the company's Q4 2025 earnings, scheduled for February 5th, which will provide further insight into its financial health beyond its Bitcoin bets.
Market Voices: Reactions from the Floor
David Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "This is the inherent volatility of the strategy. MSTR has chosen to be a leveraged play on Bitcoin. When BTC rallies, it outperforms; when it corrects, the stock gets hammered. The mNAV compression shows the market is struggling to value anything but the crypto on its balance sheet."
Rebecca Shaw, Independent Crypto Analyst: "Saylor's conviction is remarkable, but the market is sending a clear signal: relentless accumulation without a clear path to monetizing the holdings beyond price appreciation is being questioned. The software business is now an afterthought, and that's a dangerous position for any public company."
Marcus Thorne, Retail Investor & Bitcoin Advocate: "This is pure short-term noise and manipulation! The weak hands are getting shaken out. Saylor is executing the single greatest corporate treasury strategy in history. Buying more BTC at a discount is genius. The stock price today is irrelevant; we're playing a 10-year game here. The analysts cutting targets just don't get it."
Anya Petrova, Financial Risk Consultant: "The MSCI delisting scare was a major red flag. It highlights the regulatory and institutional perception risks that come with this extreme concentration. The stock's performance is now almost entirely a function of crypto market sentiment, introducing massive volatility that most traditional equity investors simply cannot stomach."
This analysis is based on reporting originally published by TheStreet on January 30, 2026.