Morgan Stanley Bullish on Full Truck Alliance, Sees 30%+ Transaction Revenue Surge by 2026
Full Truck Alliance (NYSE: YMM), China's dominant digital freight platform, finds itself at the center of a Wall Street debate. While Morgan Stanley reaffirms its confidence in the company's high-growth trajectory, JPMorgan has taken a more cautious stance, highlighting the stock's recent underperformance.
In a recent note, Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $14 price target for YMM. Analysts pointed to sustained strength in the company's primary transaction commission business, forecasting that revenue from this segment will leap by more than 30% year-over-year in 2026. This optimism is rooted in an expected 13-17% annual increase in order volume. However, the firm anticipates overall revenue for 2026 to dip slightly, by approximately 7%, to a range of RMB 11.4-11.57 billion, as other revenue streams normalize.
"The story here is one of strategic focus and quality of earnings," said Michael Chen, a logistics sector analyst at Morgan Stanley. "The accelerating commission revenue demonstrates the platform's pricing power and deepening monetization, even in a complex macroeconomic environment. Their shareholder return strategy is beginning to resonate."
This bullish outlook was countered on the same day by JPMorgan, which downgraded YMM from Neutral to Underweight. Analysts there argued that the risk-reward profile has "shifted meaningfully" after the stock lagged behind broader market indices since the start of 2025.
Full Truck Alliance operates a mobile platform that connects shippers with truckers, aiming to reduce empty miles and improve efficiency in China's vast and fragmented logistics market. Its position as a market leader provides a significant moat, but it also faces regulatory scrutiny and competitive pressures common to large Chinese tech platforms.
Market Voices: A Divided Street
Sarah Jennings, Portfolio Manager at ClearWater Capital: "Morgan Stanley's deep dive into the commission growth is compelling. It shows YMM is successfully moving up the value chain. The short-term revenue dip is a rebalancing act, not a red flag. For patient investors, this is a core holding in the digital infrastructure space."
David Park, Independent Market Strategist: "JPMorgan's downgrade is a necessary reality check. This stock has been a disappointment for over a year. Promises of 'long-term strategy' mean little when near-term momentum is negative. The market is telling us something, and it's not a story of 30% growth."
Lisa Wang, Freight Industry Consultant: "The underlying business is solid. Driver and shipper adoption on the platform continues to grow. The financial projections, whether from Morgan Stanley or JPMorgan, are models. The real asset is the network effect they've built, which isn't easily replicated."
Robert Miller, Retail Investor & Former Trucker: "As someone who used to be on the road, I know how broken the old system was. What YMM is doing is transformative. Wall Street analysts staring at charts miss the ground-level change. The volatility is noise; the efficiency gains are real and here to stay."