Nigeria's Peter Obi to Run Again as Opposition Fragments Ahead of Presidential Race
LAGOS, June 1 (Reuters) — Nigerian politician Peter Obi, who galvanized a wave of young voters in the last election, announced on Sunday that he would run for president again after winning the nomination of the Nigeria Democratic Congress, signaling a fresh challenge to incumbent Bola Tinubu and deepening a rift among opposition forces.
Obi was declared the winner of the party’s primary less than a month after withdrawing from an alliance that had aimed to field a single opposition challenger — a move that had briefly raised hopes among some backers that he might return to the coalition. Instead, his decision to run under the NDC flag paves the way for a likely three-way contest in January 2027, mirroring the 2023 race that many analysts say could once again split the anti-government vote.
Nigeria is grappling with overlapping crises: a jihadist insurgency in the northeast that has dragged on for more than 15 years; heavily armed kidnapping gangs in the northwest; and recurring violence over land and grazing routes in the north-central states. Obi, in a statement late Sunday, framed security as a top priority: “We must address insecurity with resolve and urgency, for no nation can thrive while its citizens live in trepidation.”
The election will also test whether Tinubu’s sweeping economic reforms — including the removal of fuel and electricity subsidies, and the end of currency controls — can withstand voter backlash. While the policies have drawn praise from foreign investors, they have pushed up the cost of living for millions of Nigerians, eroding incomes and savings. The pain has been compounded by higher global oil prices linked to the Iran conflict, with Nigeria experiencing some of the steepest fuel price increases among major African economies.
Tinubu, who defended his record on Friday, argued that the reforms had stabilized the country and revived investor confidence despite the hardship on households. His supporters say the adjustments are necessary long-term fixes for an economy long distorted by subsidies and currency manipulation.
The opposition field is expected to be crowded. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who finished second in the last election, secured the ticket of the African Democratic Congress party last week, making it his seventh presidential bid. Leaders of several smaller parties are also preparing to run, raising the prospect that no single candidate will be able to consolidate the anti-Tinubu sentiment.
Analysts say the outcome could hinge on whether the opposition can overcome its internal divisions — a challenge that has plagued Nigerian politics for decades. Obi’s decision to go it alone, after briefly joining an alliance earlier this year, has frustrated some opposition strategists who had hoped for a united front against Tinubu.
With an estimated 70% of Nigeria’s population under the age of 30, Obi’s ability to mobilize young voters — who flocked to him in 2023 on a message of fiscal discipline, institutional reform and youth empowerment — may prove critical. But the same economic headwinds that have fueled public anger may also dampen turnout if disillusionment sets in.
“This election is not just a rematch — it’s a referendum on whether Nigeria’s democracy can deliver change when its institutions are under strain,” said Oluwole Ojewale, a political analyst based in Abuja. “The opposition’s fragmentation risks turning anger into apathy.”
Campaigning is expected to intensify in the coming weeks, with all major candidates crisscrossing the country’s 36 states. The Independent National Electoral Commission has not yet set an official date for the vote, but it is widely expected to take place in early 2027.
(Reporting by MacDonald Dzirutwe; Editing by Andrew Heavens)