NTPC Posts Strong Q4 Profit Despite Revenue Dip, Lays Out Ambitious 20 GW Expansion Plan
NTPC Ltd (BOM:532555), India’s flagship power producer, closed fiscal 2026 on a strong note, posting a substantial jump in net profit for the March quarter despite a slight decline in total revenue. The results, released on May 23, reflect the company’s ongoing pivot toward cleaner energy sources and its ability to extract more value from existing assets through operational improvements.
During the earnings call, management laid out an aggressive capacity roadmap: approximately 9,557 MW of new capacity is planned for FY27, and 10,039 MW for FY28. The breakdown underscores a decisive shift toward renewables. For FY27, the company expects to bring online 1,070 MW of thermal, 250 MW of hydro, and a towering 8,237 MW of renewable capacity. The FY28 pipeline is similarly weighted, with 1,460 MW thermal, 444 MW hydro, and 8,135 MW renewable. Most of this growth will come through joint ventures and subsidiaries rather than stand-alone projects.
On the nuclear front, NTPC provided an update on the Mahi Banswara project, a 2.8 GW facility in Rajasthan. Excavation consent has been secured, and the first pour of concrete is expected by August 2027, with the first unit synchronization targeted for November 2032. The tender for the Nuclear Island’s mega EPC package is slated for June 2026, signaling steady progress on India’s ambitious nuclear expansion plans.
Renewable curtailment remained a thorny issue, especially for NTPC’s green energy arm, NGEL. The company reported curtailed generation of 314 million units during FY26, along with transmission losses of 135 MUs. The grid curtailment alone shaved roughly INR 90 crore off EBITDA, highlighting the growing pains of integrating large-scale renewables into India’s grid.
Coal plant flexibility also came into focus. NTPC has secured a commitment that its thermal units will operate at a technical minimum of 55% plant load factor (PLF). Should scheduling fall below that threshold, NTPC is not obligated to keep the unit running and will receive compensation through fixed charges. To manage excess solar generation during peak hours, the company is deploying co-located battery storage systems, a step that aligns with India’s broader push for grid balancing infrastructure.
In pumped storage, NTPC is advancing a 4,800 MW portfolio, primarily through joint ventures and subsidiaries. Its units THDC and NEEPCO are developing a combined 13,210 MW of pumped storage projects. So far, 1 GW has been declared commercial operation date (COD), and an additional 3–5 GW is expected to come online by 2032–33. The capital expenditure for these projects remains substantial, but management signaled that the long-term returns justify the upfront investment.
Industry analysts see NTPC’s performance as a bellwether for India’s power sector transition. The company’s ability to boost profits while navigating falling revenue, grid constraints, and a massive capacity expansion underscores its operational discipline and strategic positioning. As India’s electricity demand continues to grow and renewable penetration deepens, NTPC’s mix of thermal, hydro, nuclear, and storage assets will be closely watched by investors and policymakers alike.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.