Nvidia's Earnings Loom: Does Timing Your Buy Before Feb. 25 Matter? Historical Data Suggests Patience

NVIDIA CORP (NASDAQ: NVDA) stands as the undisputed engine of the artificial intelligence revolution, its chips powering data centers and large language models worldwide. This pivotal role has translated into an astronomical shareholder return, with the stock soaring over 800% in the past three years on the back of staggering revenue growth and profit margins exceeding 70%. The question for investors now is not about the company's dominance, but about the optimal entry point into a stock trading at historic highs.

The immediate catalyst on the horizon is Nvidia's fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year earnings report, scheduled for February 25th after market close. Industry signals, notably from chip manufacturing partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), which recently posted estimate-beating results, suggest another robust quarter is likely. However, the market's reaction to Nvidia's own stellar reports has been notoriously unpredictable in the short term.

A review of the last 11 quarterly earnings releases reveals a counterintuitive trend: Nvidia's stock price declined in the following week on six occasions and rose only five times. More tellingly, in the past six quarters, the share price advanced only once in the week post-earnings—a 5% gain in June 2025. This pattern indicates that even blockbuster results have not consistently provided an immediate, sustained boost to the stock.

"The market has priced in perfection," says Michael Chen, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "Nvidia's execution is flawless, but each report becomes a high-anxiety event where 'meeting lofty expectations' is the baseline. Any hint of a slowdown in future guidance, however slight, can trigger volatility."

This historical precedent suggests investors may not need to rush a purchase before the February 25th announcement. The long-term thesis for Nvidia remains intact, driven by unrelenting demand for AI infrastructure from cloud giants and enterprises. The recent dip in AI-related stocks in late 2023, fueled by bubble concerns, has largely reversed as spending commitments solidify.

"This obsession with timing the perfect entry is a fool's errand," argues Sarah Gibson, an independent retail investor and vocal commentator on investing forums. "If you believe in the AI decade, you buy Nvidia on weakness and hold. Trying to game a single earnings report is just gambling. The real story is the five-year chart, not the five-day move."

Financial advisors often emphasize that for long-term holders, the precise timing of a purchase around a single event diminishes in importance. A sharp move of a few percentage points after earnings will appear negligible when viewed across a multi-year investment horizon. The key consideration remains whether the company's competitive moat and growth trajectory justify its valuation at the time of purchase.

"The data clearly shows there's no consistent 'earnings pop' to chase here," adds David Park, a senior analyst at The Lowell Group. "For investors with a multi-year outlook, establishing a position when the valuation framework makes sense—whether that's before or after February 25th—and weathering the inevitable quarterly volatility is a more rational strategy than speculative timing."

In essence, history advises patience over panic. While Nvidia's upcoming report will be a significant event, its stock has not followed a reliable pattern of post-earnings rallies. For investors convinced of the long-term AI narrative, focusing on the company's fundamental strength and a reasonable valuation may prove more fruitful than attempting to outguess the market's reaction next week.

Disclosure: The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.