Ocean Container Rates Inch Higher as Peak Season Approaches, Fuel Costs and Geopolitical Risks Loom

Chart of the Week: Freightos Baltic Daily Index, China to North America West Coast, China to North America East Coast — SONAR: FBXD.CNAW, FBXD.CNAE

The ocean container shipping market has largely stayed out of the recent domestic freight turmoil, but a slow-burn rise in spot rates is unfolding as the peak import season draws closer. The ongoing conflict in Iran is adding fuel to the fire — literally — and could become a bigger factor later this year.

Spot rates for 40-foot equivalent containers moving from China to North America's East Coast have nearly doubled since late February, climbing from $2,600 to more than $5,000. On the trans-Pacific lane, rates rose by about $1,400 over the same period, reaching $3,200 as of last week. Both routes saw increases of more than 75% over an eight-week stretch, according to the Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBXD).

Maritime disruptions have been a central theme in supply chain strategy since the pandemic. During the COVID-19 peak, importers overwhelmed ports and rail heads, causing congestion that eventually broke parts of the infrastructure. That shift pushed transcontinental freight volumes away from rail and onto trucks.

As recently as 2024, railroads clawed back a significant share of transcontinental volume as shippers extended order lead times, worried that Red Sea attacks were dragging down global service levels.

With overseas transit times becoming a growing headache, shippers pushed order lead times to their highest since the end of COVID in the summer of 2024. Ocean transit times — published schedules plus actual delays — averaged about five days longer in July 2024 compared to July 2023. Order lead times of 21 days more than doubled during that period, meaning a sizable chunk of freight had weeks of domestic movement ahead of it. That extra time gave intermodal a clear advantage.

Suez Canal diversions have stayed largely in place since early 2024, but lead times have eased since then — though not back to 2023 lows. Inventory management is drifting back toward a just-in-time approach as warehousing costs have climbed sharply compared to a few years ago.

Tariff uncertainty introduced a fresh layer of disruption to the ocean market in 2025, just as supply chains and carriers had adjusted to Houthi attacks. Spot rates ran mostly lower than in 2024, except for a short-lived spike in June when the most punitive tariffs on Chinese goods were eased. That triggered the strongest pull-forward and replenishment event since the pandemic, though the market absorbed it relatively well as rates softened quickly in July.

The latest round of rate increases appears to be largely fuel-cost driven. Capacity remains ample, and shippers seem to have adapted to longer transit times, which now average just below the 2024 highs. Demand has not picked up either.

Import demand has been flat since early April and has largely trailed 2024 and 2025 levels, aside from a brief post-Liberation Day lull in May 2025. The traditional peak season runs from late July into August, and early signals suggest demand has started to inch up over the past week.

Ocean rates could face additional upward pressure if demand strengthens in the coming weeks, though that pressure could be offset if the Iran conflict finds some resolution. Service levels are steady, but transit times remain historically elevated.

Domestic transportation markets have felt little direct heat from imports this year, but the risk of that changing is growing — especially if costs keep rising or service deteriorates against a backdrop of leaner inventories.

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is a selection from SONAR that offers a telling data point on the state of freight markets. Each week, a market expert posts a chart with commentary live on the front page, and the archive is available on FreightWaves.com for future reference. SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting it in charts and maps with real-time insights for freight professionals.