OPEC Trims Q2 Oil Demand Outlook Amid Middle East Turmoil, Sticks to Full-Year Forecast
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) – The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has issued a cautious downward revision to its global oil demand forecast for the second quarter, directly attributing the adjustment to the ongoing war in Iran. The producer group's latest monthly market report, released Monday, shaved 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) from its previous estimate for the April-June period.
This marks OPEC's first public quantification of the conflict's market impact, which has effectively shuttered the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global seaborne oil trade. The blockade has stranded millions of barrels of Middle Eastern production, contributing to a sustained surge in fuel prices worldwide and prompting government-led conservation measures.
Despite the significant logistical disruption, OPEC's assessment of the demand impact remains more tempered than some other major forecasters, including the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Crucially, the cartel left its full-year 2026 demand growth forecast unchanged at 1.38 million bpd, anticipating a consumption recovery in the latter half of the year as markets adjust.
"The demand growth for the second quarter of 2026 is revised down for both OECD and non-OECD regions," the report stated. "This is driven mainly by a slight, transitory weakness given the ongoing developments in the Middle East." OPEC now projects Q2 global demand to average 105.07 million bpd, down from 105.57 million bpd forecast last month.
The report also laid bare the conflict's immediate effect on supply. OPEC+ crude output plummeted by 7.70 million bpd in March to an average of 35.06 million bpd, with Iraq and Saudi Arabia implementing the deepest cuts. This stark decline underscores the gap between policy and reality: while the broader OPEC+ alliance agreed on April 5 to a modest nominal production increase of 206,000 bpd for May, the physical constraints imposed by the Hormuz blockage mean the hike is largely theoretical for key members.
Market Voices:
"OPEC's stance is pragmatic but risks appearing overly optimistic," said Michael Thorne, a veteran energy analyst at Veritas Insights. "Sticking to the annual forecast hinges entirely on a swift resolution in the Strait, which is far from guaranteed. The market is pricing in prolonged volatility."
"This is a classic case of downplaying a crisis," argued Lena Rossi, portfolio manager at Clearwater Capital, her tone sharp. "Calling a 500,000 bpd cut 'slight' while the world's most important oil artery is closed is detached from reality. They're trying to talk the market down while physical supply screams danger. It's a dangerous game that ignores the severe economic pain already being felt."
"The data shows the system is under immense stress, but the maintained annual outlook offers a signal that this is seen as a shock, not a long-term trend shift," commented David Chen, an economist focusing on emerging markets. "For import-dependent nations, the message is to brace for a difficult quarter but plan for stabilization—if OPEC's reading is correct."