Oshkosh Navigates Tariff Headwinds and Mixed Demand to Set 2026 Course
Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE: OSK), the Wisconsin-based manufacturer of specialty vehicles for defense, construction, and emergency services, reported a quarter of contrasting fortunes. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $2.69 billion edged past Wall Street forecasts, rising 2.5% year-over-year. However, non-GAAP earnings of $2.26 per share came in slightly below consensus, highlighting the cost challenges facing the industrial sector.
The market reaction was muted, with shares dipping post-earnings. Investors grappled with a nuanced picture: robust demand in the Access Equipment and Vocational truck segments was offset by unfavorable product mix and the mounting burden of tariffs. CEO John Pfeifer pointed to a "strong finish" in Access and Vocational, driven by strategic price increases ahead of 2026. Yet, he acknowledged that these very pricing actions, alongside an estimated $200 million in annual tariff costs, are set to pressure near-term volumes.
Looking ahead, Oshkosh's 2026 guidance of approximately $11 billion in revenue reflects a cautious optimism. The company is banking on growth in Vocational and its pivotal U.S. Postal Service Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) program within the Transport segment. This is expected to counter softer demand in the Access segment, which is tied to a cooling private non-residential construction market. CFO Matthew Field indicated that cost-saving initiatives and further pricing adjustments are key to mitigating tariff impacts, with benefits weighted toward the latter half of the year.
The path forward for Oshkosh hinges on execution in a volatile environment. Analysts will watch the company's ability to pass on costs, stabilize its Access business, and capitalize on major defense and postal contracts. Its investments in automation and robotics also remain a longer-term growth lever.
Street Talk: Mixed Reactions from the Floor
Michael R., Portfolio Manager at Great Lakes Capital: "This is a classic 'show me' story. The guidance is prudent, and the NGDV ramp is a solid multi-year anchor. But the market hates uncertainty, and the $200 million tariff overhang is a real cloud. I need to see sequential margin improvement in the second half to get more constructive."
Sarah Chen, Industrial Analyst at Baird & Strauss: "The underlying demand in Vocational and the defense backlog are being overlooked. Oshkosh has navigated cycles before. Their pricing power in Access, evidenced by the strong Q4 orders, is a positive sign of brand strength. The cost savings plan seems credible."
David "Bull" Miller, Independent Trader: "Excuses, excuses. They beat on revenue by a hair and miss on EPS, then blame tariffs everyone saw coming? The guidance is tepid at best. This feels like management preparing us for more disappointment. The Access segment is a canary in the coal mine for the broader economy—I'm staying clear."
Anita Lopez, Former Supply Chain Executive: "The $200 million tariff cost is a stark reminder of the new cost base for U.S. manufacturing. Oshkosh's real test is operational: can their lean initiatives and design innovation outpace these structural headwinds? The next two quarters are critical for their credibility."