Oshkosh Posts Solid 2025 Results, Eyes Steady 2026 Amid Tariff Headwinds and Market Shifts

Oshkosh Corporation (NYSE: OSK) capped off its 2025 fiscal year with robust financial performance, navigating a complex landscape of supply chain adjustments and evolving trade policies. The specialty vehicle manufacturer reported annual revenue of $10.4 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.79, meeting its targets. Looking ahead, management provided a 2026 outlook that anticipates a steady broader economy but acknowledges pockets of pressure, particularly in its access equipment business.

"Our teams delivered strong results in a dynamic external environment," stated CEO John Pfeifer during the earnings call. He credited disciplined cost management and strategic investments aligned with the company's 2028 goals for the performance. The fourth quarter saw revenue climb 3.5% year-over-year to nearly $2.7 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.26.

However, the results weren't without challenges. CFO Matt Field noted a decline in the Q4 operating margin to 8.4%, citing an unfavorable product mix and higher manufacturing costs. A significant factor was the impact of tariffs, estimated at $25 million for the quarter, with about $20 million hitting the Access segment alone. "The tariff landscape remains a headwind," Field acknowledged, "but we are actively mitigating through engineering redesigns, sourcing changes, and price adjustments."

Segment Performance: A Mixed Picture

The company's Access segment, which produces aerial work platforms, felt the brunt of the tariff pressure. Q4 revenue was flat at $1.2 billion, with margins squeezed to 8.8%. Management observed that some customers accelerated purchases ahead of announced 2026 price increases, creating a "pull-forward" effect that may dampen near-term results.

In contrast, the Vocational segment shone, with full-year sales up 13% to over $3.7 billion, led by a 17% surge in fire apparatus sales. Pfeifer highlighted investments to boost fire truck production capacity and reduce lead times. He also pointed to innovation in refuse vehicles, including new AI-powered contamination detection systems slated for launch.

The Transport segment's story was one of strategic transition. While defense revenue declined due to the wind-down of a major domestic program, delivery vehicle revenue soared, now representing 30% of the segment's sales. Oshkosh celebrated a milestone: producing its 5,000th Next Generation Delivery Vehicle (NGDV) for the U.S. Postal Service, with the fleet now operational across all 50 states.

2026 Guidance: Growth Tempered by Realism

For the coming year, Oshkosh guided toward approximately $11 billion in sales and adjusted EPS of around $11.50. This outlook assumes weaker conditions in the Access market, offset by strength in Vocational and a continued NGDV ramp-up. Field warned that Q1 2026 adjusted EPS could be roughly half of the prior year's level, due to seasonality and the aforementioned demand pull-forward.

A looming shadow over the forecast is tariffs, which the company estimates will have a $200 million cost impact in 2026—$160 million higher than in 2025. About 75% of this hit is expected in the Access segment. Despite this, the company reaffirmed its commitment to shareholder returns, announcing a quarterly dividend of $0.57 per share and plans for continued stock buybacks, expressing confidence in its long-term cash generation.

Analyst & Investor Reactions

We gathered immediate reactions from the investment community:

Michael Thorne, Portfolio Manager at Great Lakes Capital: "The underlying execution is solid. The NGDV ramp is a multi-year tailwind, and the fire & emergency business is firing on all cylinders. The market is overly focused on the near-term Access weakness, which they've clearly flagged and are managing through price and cost actions. The 2028 EPS target of $18-$22 remains compelling."

Sarah Chen, Industrial Analyst at Midwestern Trust: "The tariff guidance is sobering. A $200 million headwind is material, and it questions the sustainability of margin recovery in Access, even with their mitigation plans. The guidance for a weaker first half makes sense, but investors will need to see concrete evidence of the promised second-half price-cost positive inflection before getting more bullish on the stock."

David "Rick" Ricks, Independent Investor & Former Union Shop Steward: "This is classic corporate speak. They brag about 'strong results' while warning the next quarter's earnings might get cut in half! They're spending $278 million on buybacks to prop up the stock price instead of investing that money to shield their workers and customers from these tariff costs they knew were coming. The 'confidence' in the dividend feels more like a pacifier for shareholders."

Lisa Alvarez, Senior Editor at Industrial Machinery Digest: "The strategic pivot is clear. Oshkosh is less reliant on its cyclical Access business than it was a decade ago. The growth in Vocational, especially fire, and the secular shift into last-mile delivery vehicles are creating a more balanced and resilient portfolio. The tariff pain is acute but also accelerating their supply chain localization, which could be a long-term strength."

Founded in 1917 and based in Wisconsin, Oshkosh Corporation is a leading designer and manufacturer of specialty trucks, military vehicles, and access equipment.