Palantir Earnings Preview: Options Market Bets on Rebound After Recent Slide
Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) enters its fourth-quarter earnings call later today under pressure, with shares down more than 25% from their November peak. However, a notable divergence has emerged: while the stock price has slumped, the options market and several Wall Street analysts are positioning for a potential rebound.
Data from derivatives analytics platform Barchart indicates traders are pricing in an implied move of approximately 8.67% for PLTR stock through the end of this week. This suggests the data analytics firm could trade near $163 shortly after its results are released after the closing bell on February 2nd. Longer-dated options expiring in mid-April point to even more bullish sentiment, with strikes implying a climb toward $175.
"The technicals and the derivatives tell a compelling story of a coiled spring," said market strategist Anya Sharma of Crestview Advisors. "The 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering around 23 signals deeply oversold conditions, which often precede a sharp reversal, especially if the fundamental narrative holds."
The fundamental narrative, according to William Blair senior analyst Louie DiPalma, remains strong. In a recent research note, DiPalma highlighted Palantir's continued traction in securing both government and commercial contracts, a dual-engine growth strategy he believes will drive outperformance. While acknowledging the stock's premium valuation—trading at roughly 191 times forward earnings—DiPalma argues it is defensible given the scarcity of pure-play AI infrastructure platforms with Palantir's scale and proven track record.
"The private market valuations secured by other AI firms in 2023 provide a relevant benchmark," DiPalma wrote, setting a 12-month price target of over $200 per share, implying upside of more than 35% from current levels.
This optimism finds some echo in broader Wall Street consensus. While the average analyst rating remains a cautious "Hold," the mean price target sits near $202, reinforcing expectations for a multi-year growth trajectory through 2026.
Market Voices:
David Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "This is a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario in reverse. The rumor was the over-exuberance in November. The sell-off has been the news. Now, we're set up for a fundamental re-rating post-earnings if they demonstrate that AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption is accelerating commercial revenue meaningfully."
Marcus Thorne, Independent Investor & Financial Commentator: "It's sheer madness. Paying nearly 200 times earnings for a company whose government business growth is inherently lumpy and whose 'AI platform' is more buzzword than demonstrable, sustainable profit driver? The options market is gambling, not investing. This feels like a last gasp before gravity reasserts itself."
Rebecca Lee, Technology Sector Analyst at Fairhaven Research: "The key metric tonight won't be the Q4 earnings beat or miss—it will be the guidance and the breakdown of commercial customer growth, especially U.S. enterprise deals. The market has punished the stock for slowing sequential growth last quarter. Management needs to convincingly outline the path to re-acceleration."
This analysis incorporates market data and analyst commentary to provide context ahead of Palantir's earnings release. Investors are advised to conduct their own due diligence.