Palantir Stock Surges After Hours on Blowout Q4 Earnings and Aggressive 2026 Outlook
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) shares surged in after-hours trading Monday, extending modest gains from the regular session after the company delivered a double beat on its fourth-quarter 2025 results and issued a bullish forecast for 2026.
The stock was up approximately 5.1% in post-market activity, trading above $155 after closing the regular session at $147.76. The move reflects investor enthusiasm for both the company's recent performance and its aggressive growth trajectory.
For Q4 2025, Palantir reported revenue of $1.41 billion, surpassing the $1.34 billion consensus estimate among analysts. The company also posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, topping expectations of $0.23. This marks another quarter of robust execution for the software specialist, which has seen its government and commercial contracts expand.
However, it was management's guidance for the full year 2026 that appeared to fuel the most significant after-hours momentum. Palantir projected revenue in the range of $7.18 billion to $7.2 billion, implying year-over-year growth exceeding 60%. More notably, the company forecast adjusted free cash flow between $3.925 billion and $4.125 billion. At the midpoint, this would represent a staggering 77% increase from 2025 levels, signaling a rapid acceleration in profitability.
"The guidance is exceptionally strong, particularly on cash flow," said Marcus Thorne, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital Advisors. "It suggests their foundational government business is not only stable but that their commercial AI platform, AIP, is gaining serious traction and scaling efficiently. This isn't just growth; it's high-quality, profitable growth."
The optimistic outlook comes despite Palantir's valuation remaining a point of contention. The stock currently trades at nearly 200 times operating cash flow, a significant premium to its five-year average multiple of 69.2. This disparity highlights the polarized views on Wall Street regarding the company's future.
"This is peak optimism priced into perfection," argued Dr. Lena Vance, a financial analyst known for her skeptical takes on tech valuations. "A 60% growth target is heroic, and a near-200x cash flow multiple is unsustainable. One stumble in execution or a shift in macro conditions, and this stock could correct violently. Investors are ignoring the immense execution risk and competitive pressures in the AI space."
Other market observers struck a more measured tone. David Chen, an independent retail investor and long-time Palantir shareholder, commented, "As a holder since the DPO, I've seen the skepticism. Today's report shows they're delivering on the promise of scaling their commercial business. The cash flow guidance is the key—it shows the model works. Is it expensive? Yes. But if they hit these numbers, it won't be in a year's time."
The report also follows a remarkable 135% gain for Palantir stock in 2025, setting a high bar for continued performance. With the company now guiding for accelerated growth, the debate between bulls who see a dominant AI and data analytics platform and bears who see a richly valued stock facing heightened expectations is likely to intensify.
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