Paper Deal, Chaotic Sea: Strait of Hormuz Remains a Flashpoint
The waters of the Strait of Hormuz are supposed to be getting calmer. In late April, Iran and the United States signed a ceasefire agreement that included a key Iranian concession: to use its “best efforts” to ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the vital oil chokepoint. A fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies flow through the narrow waterway, and reopening it was seen as a major step toward ending years of confrontation.
But on the ground — or rather, on the sea — the reality looks very different. Iranian Revolutionary Guards broadcast a blunt warning to ships transiting the strait on Thursday: “If any vessel attempts to transit without our permission… or outside of the designated route, it is responsible for any consequences.” The message was a stark reminder that, while diplomats may have reached a deal, the force with the most direct control over the strait still has its own agenda.
The warning was just one episode in a tense stretch of days that saw two merchant vessels struck, and a growing number of ships trying to evade Iranian supervision by hugging the Omani coastline on a so-called “southern route.” Three distinct corridors have now emerged in the 21-mile-wide waterway: an Iranian-controlled northern route, a pre-war central passage, and an Omani southern route that bypasses Tehran’s reach entirely. Each comes with its own risks and political implications.
The ceasefire agreement was carefully worded to allow Iran to claim concessions without fully ceding control. One vaguely written article states that Iran and Oman will work together to “define the future administration” of the waterway — a phrase that effectively gives Tehran a formal role in managing the strait. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Sunday that any “parallel arrangements” outside the agreed framework would only complicate matters and delay the reopening of the vital waterway. He didn’t spell out what those parallel arrangements might be, but the southern route is an obvious candidate.
For shipping companies, the situation is a logistical and legal minefield. Choosing the Iranian route means potentially paying fees — initially demanded as tolls, now rebranded as maritime service charges and environmental taxes — and risking future U.S. sanctions if the agreement collapses. Choosing the Omani route means defying the Revolutionary Guards, who have called it “unacceptable,” and facing the possibility of attack. Choosing the central pre-war route? It’s unclear who exactly controls that passage now.
“All this is very confusing for safely navigating those waters,” Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk consultancy Marisks, told CNN. “The current environment is extremely dangerous.”
Despite the confusion, some vessels are testing the new lanes. On Thursday, maritime intelligence firm Windward tracked 18 inbound and 45 outbound transits, with more than half of the outbound vessels using the southern Omani route. By Sunday, several large merchant ships — including two oil tankers and two liquefied gas carriers — were seen heading into the Gulf via the same path, according to Marine Traffic. A container ship also made the passage. The numbers suggest that operators are willing to take the risk, but the lack of a clear, universally accepted route is keeping trade volumes far below pre-war levels.
Insurance premiums, which skyrocketed during the conflict — topping $1 million per Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) — remain elevated. To secure coverage for a strait transit, ships must specify which route they plan to use, according to Matthew Wright, principal freight analyst at Kpler. “This is not back to square one, but it makes it very clear that we are still in the 60-day ceasefire rather than an absolute guarantee that the Strait of Hormuz is on a certain path of reopening,” he said. “If the disagreements are not ironed out by mid-August, we might end up seeing the three routes being used in a more chaotic manner and in a less safe way.”
The uncertainty already had real consequences. After a drone attack on the Singapore-registered Ever Lovely on Thursday, the International Maritime Organization halted a coordinated evacuation that was guiding more than 500 commercial vessels carrying over 11,000 seafarers out of the Persian Gulf. At least four ships turned back.
Shipping companies are watching from the sidelines. Many want to see a sustained period of incident-free crossings before sending their vessels back into the strait. The distrust between Iran and the U.S. runs deep, and the gap between what was agreed in negotiating rooms and what is actually happening in the water remains wide. As Wright put it: “We’re coming from a high position of distrust between both sides, so the agreement is a good first step. But there’s obviously a big gap between what the US is saying and what the Iranians are saying. We’re in a very chaotic period.”
This story has been updated with additional reporting.