Pfizer Bets Big on Monthly Shots in Bid to Challenge Obesity Drug Dominance
NEW YORK – The global obesity drug market, currently dominated by Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO), may be on the cusp of a significant shift. While the two leaders reported combined obesity-related sales exceeding $49 billion last year, rival Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is executing a multi-billion dollar strategy to carve out its own niche, betting that patient convenience will be its key to entry.
Pfizer's path has not been smooth. The company discontinued its twice-daily oral candidate, danuglipron, last year over safety concerns. Undeterred, it pivoted aggressively, acquiring Metsera for $7 billion in November 2025 to secure a once-monthly injectable GLP-1 therapy, PF'3944. Early data has fueled internal confidence. "Our Phase 2b results significantly increase our confidence in the upcoming Phase 3 monthly dosing study," said Pfizer's Chief Scientific Officer, Chris Boshoff, in a recent earnings update.
The company's thesis hinges on a less frequent dosing schedule. "Our research indicates a strong patient preference for moving from weekly to monthly injections," noted CEO Albert Bourla, positioning the candidate as a potential maintenance therapy in a market projected to reach $150 billion. Commercial lead Aamir Malik added that PF'3944's efficacy profile appears competitive, and when "combined with a lower medication burden... that's a value proposition that's gonna resonate."
Beyond the monthly injectable, Pfizer is exploring combination therapies and has not ceded the oral market, recently licensing an early-stage oral GLP-1 agonist from Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical's YaoPharma. The company plans to advance over 20 obesity drug trials in 2026.
Analysts caution that any commercial disruption is not imminent. Boshoff acknowledged that the first potential approvals are not expected before 2028. In the interim, Pfizer highlights its substantial 6.4% forward dividend yield as a reason for investor patience. The coming years will test whether Pfizer's convenience-focused strategy can successfully redefine a market currently ruled by weekly injections.
Market Voices
Dr. Anya Sharma, Healthcare Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "This is a textbook long-game play. Pfizer isn't trying to beat Lilly and Novo at their own game tomorrow. They're investing to define the next phase of the market—maintenance therapy. The monthly dosing angle is a credible differentiator, especially for payers looking at long-term cost management."
Michael T. Rossi, Independent Biotech Analyst: "Let's be real. 'Could' and 'potential' are doing a lot of heavy lifting here. They're years behind, playing catch-up in a brutally competitive space. That $7 billion acquisition is a huge, risky bet for a company that just flamed out on its first major candidate. Investors should be skeptical of hype around early-stage data."
Linda Chen, Pharmacy Benefits Consultant: "From a payer perspective, more competition is always welcome. A monthly option could simplify administration and improve adherence. If Pfizer can deliver comparable efficacy with that convenience, it will absolutely get a seat at the table, even if it's a later arrival."
David Park, Retail Investor & Newsletter Author: "The dividend is a nice cushion, but let's not pretend this is a passive income play. This is a high-stakes R&D turnaround story. If PF'3944 stumbles in Phase 3, that Metsera deal will look like a massive overpay. The pressure on Bourla and the team is immense."