Piper Sandler Trims Price Target for Black Diamond Therapeutics Amid Model Review, Despite Recent Clinical Wins

In a move reflecting updated valuation models across its biotechnology portfolio, investment firm Piper Sandler has adjusted its outlook on Black Diamond Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: BDTX). The firm lowered its price target for the clinical-stage oncology company to $8 from $9, while reiterating an Overweight rating on the stock.

The revision, reported by TheFly on January 16, was part of a wider reassessment of Piper Sandler's biotech coverage and its 2026 Catalyst Tracker. It arrives on the heels of significant clinical news from Black Diamond. In early December 2025, the company announced positive Phase 2 results for silevertinib in treating frontline non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with non-classical EGFR mutations. The data highlighted a robust 60% response rate and demonstrated activity in the central nervous system—a critical hurdle in treating advanced cancers.

"The target adjustment is more about our refreshed sector models than a fundamental downgrade of Black Diamond's story," a source familiar with Piper Sandler's thinking noted. "The recent CNS activity data for silevertinib is precisely the kind of differentiation the market looks for in a crowded oncology space."

However, analyst sentiment appears mixed. Shortly after the data release, Guggenheim shifted its stance on BDTX, downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral without assigning a new price target. Analyst Brad Canino pointed to the anticipated progression-free survival readout in the second quarter of 2026 and perceived increased risk associated with a planned Phase 3 trial as reasons for caution.

Black Diamond is developing what it calls MasterKey therapies, designed to target families of oncogenic mutations across various tumor types. Its pipeline features brain-penetrant inhibitors aimed at EGFR and other mutation-driven cancers, addressing significant unmet needs in solid tumors. The company plans to engage with the FDA and initiate a randomized Phase 2 study in glioblastoma in 2026, with funding projected to support operations into late 2028.

Michael Torres, Portfolio Manager at Horizon BioHealth Fund: "This is a classic case of near-term model noise versus long-term clinical substance. Piper's target tweak is administrative. The CNS response data is the real headline and could redefine the standard of care for a subset of NSCLC patients."

Dr. Anya Sharma, Oncologist at Metropolitan Cancer Center: "As a clinician, the 60% response rate in the CNS is compelling. If replicated in larger trials, silevertinib offers a much-needed tool. The market's focus on quarterly price targets often misses these transformative clinical milestones."

Rick Carson, Independent Biotech Analyst: "Let's be real. This stock is a rollercoaster propped up by data presentations. Guggenheim got it right—downgrading to Neutral. The 'funding into 2028' line screams future dilution. Investors are being asked to ignore price cuts and bank on data years away. It's a risky bet."

Lisa Chen, Biotechnology Research Associate at Aspen Investments: "The strategic focus on mutation families, not just single mutations, gives Black Diamond a potentially broader market. The pipeline's rationale is strong, but the volatility post-downgrade shows how sensitive these early-stage biotechs are to analyst sentiment shifts."

The contrasting analyst actions underscore the high-stakes, binary nature of investing in clinical-stage biotech firms, where promising data must constantly be weighed against development risks and financing needs.