Piper Sandler Trims Price Target for Expand Energy (EXE) Amid Shifting Natural Gas Landscape

Expand Energy (NASDAQ: EXE), a leading independent U.S. natural gas producer formed by the 2024 merger of Chesapeake Energy and Southwestern Energy, finds itself in the spotlight as analysts recalibrate expectations for the sector.

Investment firm Piper Sandler adjusted its outlook on January 28, reducing its price target for EXE to $137 from $138, while reaffirming its 'Overweight' rating. The modest revision points to a mixed environment: analysts anticipate robust fourth-quarter results for gas-focused equities, but acknowledge headwinds from volatile regional pricing at the WAHA hub and softer oil and natural gas liquids (NGL) markets.

The move follows a similar, but deeper, cut by Barclays a week earlier, which slashed its target to $126 from $136, though it also maintained a positive rating. Barclays cited a broader review of exploration and production stocks ahead of Q4 earnings, noting the sector's resilient cash-return models but advising caution due to near-term commodity price uncertainty.

Looking ahead, the narrative for Expand Energy and its peers is increasingly tied to long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand. As the industry pivots toward FY 2026, analysts like those at Piper Sandler expect major gas producers to shift gears from capital discipline to strategic growth initiatives, positioning themselves to feed the expanding global LNG market.

Market Voices:

"This is a minor adjustment, not a change in thesis," says Michael Rivera, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "EXE's integrated assets post-merger make it a key player. The focus is on their operational execution ahead of the coming LNG wave."

"It's a red flag," counters Sarah Chen, an independent energy analyst known for her critical stance. "Two target cuts in a week, even if ratings hold, signal the Street is getting nervous. The 'resilient' cash flow story is being tested by weak real prices. Investors are being told to hope for 2026 while ignoring 2025's volatility."

"The Barclays cut seems more about sector rebalancing," adds David Wells, a veteran oil & gas reporter. "The key takeaway is that despite noise, the analyst consensus remains constructive on well-positioned gas giants like EXE for the long haul."