Progress in Strait of Hormuz Talks, Rubio Says, but No Final Deal Yet

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz have made progress, but he stopped short of declaring a breakthrough.

“There’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet,” Rubio told reporters at the State Department. “We’re hoping that will happen very shortly.”

Rubio said the United States is involved in the ongoing exchange between Iran and Oman, which has become the main diplomatic channel since the U.S.-Iran war began. He described the immediate goal as restoring safe passage for commercial shipping while broader discussions continue over Iran’s nuclear program. “Denuclearization of Iran is the ultimate deal,” he said.

President Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday, said the Strait of Hormuz would be open “very soon,” or the U.S. would strike Iran. “The Strait is going to be open very soon, or they’re going to hit very hard, and then the Strait is going to be open,” Trump said. Earlier, he said he wanted to give Iran “every last chance before decapitation,” even as he again pulled back from launching new attacks.

Iran’s foreign ministry has repeatedly denied that any negotiations with Washington are underway. Spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said Tehran’s only talks are with Oman, focused on agreeing on a route that would ensure safe navigation through the strait. He said the route would likely be temporary until a permanent arrangement is reached, but stressed that the waterway will not return to its pre-war status.

A source familiar with the Iran-Oman talks said the discussions are now centered on the mechanics of reopening the passage. Under the current proposal, ships entering the strait would use the channel closest to Iran, with Tehran coordinating inbound traffic. Vessels leaving would use the Omani side, with Muscat managing outbound traffic. The plan also includes a service fee, with revenue split between Iran and Oman. The source said the broad outlines have largely been agreed upon, with implementation and timing still unresolved.

Qatar and Pakistan have also been involved in mediation efforts. Qatar’s foreign ministry said diplomats are “consistently working to create the appropriate conditions” for engagement, though no direct U.S.-Iran talks are planned. Pakistani officials said Iran’s foreign minister has been invited to visit Islamabad.

The diplomatic maneuvering is unfolding against a backdrop of concern over U.S. military readiness. According to two people with direct knowledge, the United States has consumed nearly all of its long-range precision missiles during the war with Iran, specifically Army Tactical Missile Systems and Precision Strike Missiles. U.S. officials say limited inventories remain and that the more pressing concern is the rapid depletion of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, which are being used faster than industry can replace them.

Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said the U.S. military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has dismissed stockpile concerns as a “manufactured story.”

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, meanwhile, have kept up their campaign against Saudi Arabia. They claimed a drone strike on a “sensitive target” at Najran Airport in southern Saudi Arabia and said they attacked the Saudi oil tanker Wafa off Yanbu with ballistic missiles. A Houthi military spokesman said the tanker was the eighth Saudi vessel targeted since the group announced a maritime blockade of Saudi ports and ships on July 20.

Saudi authorities have not commented on the claims. The Houthis have also threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, to Saudi vessels.

Shipping data shows how fragile the situation remains. Analytics firm Kpler recorded nine confirmed transits through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, with seven using the Iranian-coordinated route. In the Bab el-Mandeb, crossings fell to 30, down from 41 at the end of July. U.S. Central Command said the southern route through the strait remains open for commercial vessels and that American forces have assisted more than 1,000 ships over the past three months.

For Iraq, the disruption has been severe. Kpler data showed Iraqi crude exports passing through the strait totaled about 30 million barrels over one month, a fraction of the more than 100 million barrels normally shipped. Iraqi oil revenue, once as high as $8 billion per month, has fallen to little more than $1.5 billion, according to the oil minister. Iraq has also been forced to halt production in most of its oil fields as reservoirs filled up.

Energy markets have swung with every headline. Oil prices fell sharply Monday after Trump signaled new talks, and stocks extended their rally Tuesday. The S&P 500 climbed 1.9%, while the Dow moved up more than 1,000 points, helped by strong corporate earnings and hopes for de-escalation.

The war has also been a windfall for major energy companies. BP said second-quarter net profit more than doubled to $3.91 billion. Combined profits at BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies reached nearly $47 billion over the same period.

In other regional developments, an Indian vessel sank after being hit by a projectile near Yemeni waters; all 14 crew members were rescued. A Greek-owned cargo ship, the MV Minoan Pioneer, was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a complete electrical blackout and a reported fire. One crew member was reported missing.

Lebanon and Israel opened a new round of U.S.-mediated talks in Rome, with Beirut pressing for a phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and a halt to military operations. Hezbollah’s leader dismissed the talks, saying they would bring Lebanon “nothing but shame, humiliation, and successive compromises.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday there could be a deal on opening the strait “today or tomorrow,” adding that Iran’s military capabilities have been substantially degraded. Still, the public positions of Washington and Tehran remain far apart. American officials say progress is being made; Iranian officials say they are not negotiating with the United States at all. What is clear is that the economic and military stakes continue to rise with each passing day.