RBC Lifts Price Target on Ascendis Pharma, Backs Growth Trajectory Through 2026
In a show of continued confidence, RBC Capital Markets has increased its price target on Ascendis Pharma A/S (NASDAQ: ASND) from $245 to $250, maintaining its Outperform rating. The adjustment follows the European biopharmaceutical firm's recent outline of its key strategic and financial objectives for 2026.
The analyst's move is primarily underpinned by Ascendis's forecast for its flagship product, Yorvipath (TransCon PTH for hypoparathyroidism). The company expects to maintain its launch trajectory without a decline in patient intake. Notably, Ascendis highlighted a substantial addressable patient population in Europe, estimated at 150,000-200,000, compared to 70,000-90,000 in the U.S., though it cautioned that navigating Europe's complex reimbursement landscape would require time. Long-term, the company anticipates a 60:40 revenue split between the U.S. and international markets.
Financially, Ascendis reiterated its goal to achieve €500 million in operating cash flow this year. More ambitiously, it projects total revenue to exceed €5 billion by 2030, a figure that stands in contrast to the current market consensus of approximately €3.5 billion. The company sees Yorvipath as a potential multi-billion euro peak revenue generator, with estimates ranging from €5 to €8 billion.
Analyst & Investor Commentary:
"The updated targets, particularly the confidence in Yorvipath's launch durability, validate our thesis on the company's execution capability," said Michael Thorne, a portfolio manager at a life sciences-focused fund. "The European opportunity, while slower to materialize, represents a significant long-term lever."
"These projections are wildly optimistic," countered Dr. Lena Shaw, a biotech analyst known for her skeptical stance. "Promising €5 billion by 2030 against a €3.5 billion consensus is a major stretch. This feels like management trying to dazzle with big numbers to distract from the ongoing commercial execution risks, especially in Europe."
"As a patient with a rare endocrine condition, this isn't just about stock prices," shared David Chen, an advocate. "Seeing a company set bold, long-term financial goals suggests a commitment to sustaining the research and support programs that the community relies on. That's the real news here."
Ascendis Pharma, headquartered in Denmark, focuses on developing differentiated therapies for unmet medical needs in endocrinology and oncology using its proprietary TransCon technology platform.