Robert Half Stock Soars 26% as Recruitment Giant Signals Long-Awaited Turnaround
In a sharp reversal of fortune, shares of Robert Half International (NYSE: RHI) skyrocketed more than 26% in midday trading Thursday. The dramatic move followed the company's fourth-quarter earnings report, which offered investors the first concrete signs that the cyclical staffing giant may have finally reached a turning point after a prolonged downturn.
Recruitment firms like Robert Half are closely watched as economic indicators, their fortunes rising and falling with corporate hiring confidence. The stock's surge reflects a wave of optimism that the worst may be over for the company, which has navigated a challenging landscape for talent solutions.
"We are very pleased to see talent solutions and enterprise revenues return to positive sequential growth on a same-day constant currency basis for the first time in over three years," said CEO Keith Waddell in the earnings release. While year-over-year revenue and earnings still declined, this sequential improvement marks a critical shift. Waddell added that the positive momentum continued into the early weeks of January, with results exceeding the midpoint of the company's guidance.
Analysts note that Waddell's commentary on improving conditions for small businesses is particularly significant. A healthier small business sector, a key client base for staffing, could have positive ripple effects across the broader economy and related companies, such as UPS, which is increasingly targeting SMB growth.
However, management tempered expectations for a rapid recovery. Based on current trends, Robert Half does not anticipate returning to year-over-year growth until the third quarter of 2025. For investors in cyclical stocks, the search is often for the inflection point—the moment when the trajectory changes. This report may be that signal. If the company's earnings through the first half of 2025 confirm this nascent momentum, it could set the stage for substantial stock appreciation in 2026 and bode well for the underlying economic landscape.
Market Voices: A Mix of Optimism and Skepticism
David Chen, Portfolio Manager at Horizon Capital: "This is the data point we've been waiting for. Sequential growth is the leading indicator for this industry. It's not a full recovery narrative yet, but it's the first green shoot after a long winter. The market is rightly pricing in a higher probability of a sustained upcycle."
Maria Rodriguez, Independent Retail Investor: "I've held RHI through the dip, believing in their model. Today feels like validation. The CEO's note about small businesses is huge—it tells me the recovery might have broader legs than just temporary cost-cutting by big corporations."
Franklin "Frank" Kellerman, Editor of The Skeptical Investor newsletter: "A 26% pop on a revenue decline? Let's not get carried away. This is a classic 'less bad' earnings bounce in a beaten-down stock. Management themselves say no real growth until late 2025! The market is desperate for any good news and is extrapolating a single data point into a full-blown recovery. I'll believe it when I see two more quarters of confirmation."
Dr. Anika Sharma, Economic Strategist at Brookfield Institute: "Robert Half's performance is a valuable leading indicator. If this inflection holds, it suggests businesses are moving from survival mode to growth planning, starting with flexible talent. This could be an early, micro-scale signal of rising business investment, which would be a positive development for the 2025 economic outlook."