Rubio expresses cautious optimism on Iran deal, insists on nuclear program curbs
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday signaled cautious optimism that a diplomatic resolution to the war with Iran could be imminent, while making clear that any sanctions relief would hinge on verifiable nuclear concessions from Tehran.
“There is the prospect before us, which could happen today, it could happen tomorrow, it could happen next week,” Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, offering a more upbeat tone than the battlefield realities might suggest.
The hearing unfolded as the three-month US-Israeli military campaign against Iran appears to have reached a stalemate. The continued closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz has rattled global energy markets, driving up crude prices and raising fears of broader economic disruption. Rubio insisted that reopening the shipping channel was a prerequisite for any peace agreement, while also demanding Iran curb its nuclear enrichment activities.
“Iran is being sanctioned because they’ve highly enriched uranium; Iran is being sanctioned because of their nuclear activities,” Rubio said. “If they agree to give up those things, there will be sanctions relief.”
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed a deal is near, but behind-the-scenes negotiations have stalled. Although a fragile ceasefire has largely held since early April, sporadic strikes between Iranian and US forces continue, underscoring the fragile state of the truce. Rubio sought to downplay those exchanges, asserting broadly that “the war is over.”
In defending the decision to launch hostilities, Rubio cited significant degradation of Iran’s military capabilities. “Iran has no navy left, they’ve lost a substantial percentage of their defense industrial base, and they’ve lost a substantial percentage of their missile launchers,” he said. “Their economy is far worse today than it was six to nine months ago.” He acknowledged, however, that “Iran still has a lot of drones,” hinting at persistent asymmetric threats.
Rubio also touched on the status of Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who had been wounded in the initial US-Israeli strikes in late February and had not been seen in public since assuming office after his father’s death. Rubio said the 56-year-old Khamenei is alive and “increasingly engaging at some level,” offering the first official US confirmation that the leadership transition inside Iran remains stable despite the war.
The twin pressures of military attrition and economic collapse have so far not forced Iran to the negotiating table on US terms, and analysts remain divided on whether a genuine breakthrough is within reach. Rubio’s testimony suggests the administration sees the window for diplomacy as both open and narrowing.
md/ksb