SanDisk Stock Soars 1,479% in Year Since Spinoff, With $1,000 Price Target in Sight
NEW YORK – In a stunning display of market momentum, SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) has seen its stock price surge an astonishing 1,479% in the twelve months since it was spun off from data storage giant Western Digital. The rally accelerated this week after a prominent Wall Street analyst set a bold $1,000 price target, sending shares up another 14% to approximately $659.
The catalyst behind this meteoric rise is no secret: an insatiable, AI-fueled demand for high-performance flash memory. SanDisk's recent quarterly results shattered expectations, with revenue jumping 61% year-over-year to $3.03 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share hitting $6.20. Perhaps more tellingly, the company's guidance for the current quarter projects revenue between $4.4 and $4.8 billion—a figure that signals the acceleration is just beginning.
"We are witnessing a fundamental step-change in demand driven by AI infrastructure build-out," said SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler. He highlighted that data center revenue grew 64% sequentially, while edge and consumer segments also saw growth exceeding 60%. With NAND flash supply struggling to keep pace, average selling prices have risen sharply, boosting the company's gross margin to 51.1% and driving a 672% increase in GAAP net income.
The supply-demand imbalance appears structural. Management and industry analysts now believe shortages could persist through 2028, as AI inference workloads create a massive new market for storage. SanDisk has moved to secure its long-term position, extending a key NAND supply agreement with Kioxia through 2034.
This outlook prompted Bernstein analyst Mark Newman to nearly double his price target on SanDisk from $580 to $1,000, maintaining an Outperform rating. Newman's model projects fiscal 2027 earnings could reach $90.96 per share, supported by gross margins potentially as high as 75%. He describes the current environment as an "unprecedented NAND price rebound" leading to a "super-profitability cycle," with the company's strategic pivot to high-margin enterprise and data center products paying off handsomely.
Analyst & Investor Commentary:
"This isn't just a cyclical uptick; it's a complete re-rating of the entire memory sector," says Michael Torres, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital. "SanDisk has successfully pivoted from a consumer-focused brand to an essential enterprise AI infrastructure player. The $1,000 target reflects a recognition of sustained pricing power we haven't seen in this industry in over a decade."
"The numbers are undeniable, but let's not get carried away," cautions Dr. Anya Sharma, a technology economist at the Brookfield Institute. "While AI demand is real, memory markets are notoriously cyclical. These margins are unsustainable in the long run, and capacity expansions are already being planned across the industry. Investors chasing this rally should be aware of the inherent volatility."
"It's absolute madness that a 'boring' memory stock is getting the Nvidia treatment," argues retail investor and finance blogger Ryan Cobb, whose tone grows increasingly sharp. "This is hype-driven speculation, plain and simple. A 1,500% gain in one year? A price target based on 2027 estimates? This is a classic bubble signal. Everyone who missed the NVDA train is now piling into SNDK, desperate not to miss the 'next big thing.' The moment supply catches up—and it will—this house of cards comes down."
"As a long-term shareholder since the Western Digital days, I'm thrilled but also bewildered," shares Eleanor Rigby, a retired engineer from Austin. "It validates the bet on the spinoff's potential. It shows that in the AI gold rush, the companies selling the picks and shovels—like storage—can be just as profitable as the miners."
The SanDisk story underscores a broader theme in the AI investment landscape: the ripple effects are spreading beyond chip designers like Nvidia to the critical enablers further down the supply chain. For investors, it highlights the need to look at the entire ecosystem powering the artificial intelligence revolution.