Secondary Watch Market Shows Signs of Recovery, But Gains Remain Concentrated Among Top Brands

This analysis is adapted from our weekly watch industry newsletter, In the Loupe. Subscribe here for exclusive insights.

The tide may finally be turning for the secondary watch market. According to the latest industry report from WatchCharts, published in collaboration with Morgan Stanley, the sector has posted its first sustained price growth after 13 consecutive quarters of decline. Prices began a tentative climb in Q3 2025 and continued through the year's final quarter, signaling a potential shift in sentiment.

For the full year ending December 31, the overall secondary market index rose by 4.9%. This marks a significant reversal from the steep declines of 10.7% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024. The recovery, however, is not a uniform story of resurgence.

The report highlights a pronounced "flight to quality." The so-called "Big Three"—Audemars Piguet, Rolex, and Patek Philippe—accounted for nearly all of the market's growth. Patek Philippe led with a striking 12.1% year-over-year increase, followed by Rolex at 4.6%. Omega and Cartier also posted modest gains of 2.4% and 3.4%, respectively.

Beyond this elite tier, the landscape remains challenging. "Prices declined for 28 of the 35 brands we track," the report states. Major conglomerates like LVMH, Richemont, and Swatch Group saw their collective brand values fall by 6.3%, 5.3%, and 1.5% year-over-year, underperforming independently owned houses.

A glimmer of broader hope emerged in Q4 2025. For the first time in three years, price increases were more widespread, with 21 of the 35 tracked brands seeing gains. Patek Philippe again topped quarterly performance with a 7.6% rise, while Audemars Piguet rebounded with 1.8% growth after a stagnant period.

Despite the uptick, a fundamental problem persists: value retention. Soaring retail prices, which have climbed an average of 7% since January 2025, are eroding the relative value of pre-owned pieces. "Consequently, value retention declined across all brands versus a year ago," the report notes. "While the Big Three continue to trade above retail, every other brand we track now exhibits value retention worse than 30%."

This disparity is reshaping consumer behavior. Priced out of the primary market, many buyers are flocking to the secondary sector for significant discounts. This has boosted transaction volumes, with brands like IWC and Tudor seeing the value of secondary market sales surge by 17.8% and 21.8% in 2025, respectively.

Analysts interpret the data as a market maturing past its pandemic-era frenzy. "2025 served as an inflection point," the report suggests. "Market dynamics are now being shaped by broader macro factors—higher retail prices, rising gold costs, a weaker dollar—and a shift towards pragmatic consumption rather than speculation. Rising volumes show demand is healthy at the right price, with dealers prioritizing turnover over margin."

The era of easy speculation appears over. The current market rewards fundamental value and brand prestige, offering savvy buyers opportunities but reminding the industry that sustainable growth must be built on more than hype.

Reader Reactions:

Marcus Chen, Collector & Finance Analyst (Hong Kong): "The data confirms the bifurcation we've observed on the ground. Capital is concentrating at the very top as a safe haven. The 'other' brands need to reassess their retail pricing strategies urgently; they're destroying their own secondary market appeal."

Eleanor Vance, Vintage Watch Dealer (London): "Finally, some positive momentum! The increased transaction volume is the real story here. It brings liquidity back to the market, which benefits everyone—serious collectors can find pieces, and dealers can operate sustainably."

David R. Miller, Industry Commentator (New York): "A 'recovery' built entirely on three brands is a farce. This report exposes the brutal truth: for most watch brands, their products are depreciating assets the moment they leave the boutique. The industry's obsession with relentless retail price hikes is a self-inflicted wound."

Sophie Laurent, Luxury Retail Consultant (Geneva): "The shift to 'pragmatic consumption' is a healthy correction. It filters out flippers and brings back genuine enthusiasts. Brands with a strong heritage and true innovation, not just marketing, will endure this consolidation."

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