Seven Ethiopian rebel groups forge Alliance for Survival to challenge Abiy government
Seven Ethiopian rebel groups have formed a new coalition aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, an announcement that highlights the widening array of armed challenges facing Addis Ababa.
The groups said the coalition, named the Alliance for Survival, brings together the Fano militia in Amhara, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and four smaller factions.
In a statement, the seven groups accused Abiy’s government of presiding over “war, genocide, mass destruction and utter poverty,” and warned that Ethiopia risks disintegration.
Abiy’s spokesperson, Billene Seyoum, said the groups had already been collaborating for some time, according to Reuters. The BBC has asked the government for comment.
A patchwork of conflicts
The announcement reflects a country where armed conflict has become entrenched. Ethiopia has endured years of fighting in Oromia and Amhara, its two most populous regional states, while renewed tensions have unsettled the northern Tigray region.
Tigray was the site of a two-year civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions. An African Union-brokered peace deal ended the fighting in 2022, but fears of a return to full-scale war have persisted, with both sides accusing the other of violating the agreement.
Beyond Oromia, Amhara and Tigray, the new alliance includes groups based in Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz. Together, those six regions represent half of Ethiopia’s 12 regional states.
Ethiopia’s federal system is structured largely around its dominant ethnic groups, a model intended to grant some autonomy to regions but one that has also generated social and political friction in a country with more than 80 ethnic groups.
Former rivals, common enemy
Some of the factions in the new coalition have fought one another in the past. They say they will now work together against their common enemy.
However, Edward Bach, an analyst at advisory firm Verisk Maplecroft, told AFP that the groups were “unlikely to share weapons... as your ally today can be your enemy tomorrow.”
Amhara’s Fano group fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF during the Tigray war. But it turned against the federal government in an armed insurgency less than a year after that war ended, after refusing government orders to disarm.
Abdikadir Addaani Hirmooge, a spokesman for the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), which is part of the alliance, told the BBC the coalition was trying to bring together communities that had been divided against one another.
“Our objective is for the communities to have democracy and to exercise their right to self-determination, to genuinely govern themselves,” he said.
He added that the government had not respected a 2018 peace deal meant to end the conflict in the Somali region. “Ethnic conflict, insecurity, and mutual oppression and pushing each other aside have not been eradicated, resulting in a need that has affected every ethnic group,” he said.
The government has been fighting the OLA since 2018.
Political strain
The formation of the Alliance for Survival comes months after reports of an alleged alliance between the TPLF and neighboring Eritrea. Abiy responded at the time by saying he had faith in Ethiopia’s “defensive capabilities.”
“Even if others were added, we do not have an iota of fear regarding Ethiopia’s sovereignty,” he told lawmakers in July.
Ethiopia held a general election in June. Abiy’s Prosperity Party retained its overwhelming parliamentary majority, though the vote was overshadowed by conflict, accusations of repression and little participation by opposition parties. Fano and the OLA rejected the election and its results.
The Tigray region and its roughly six million inhabitants were completely excluded from the poll.
For now, the new alliance’s practical impact remains uncertain. Its members have different histories, constituencies and battlefield interests, and previous rebel coalitions in Ethiopia have often struggled to hold together. But the announcement adds another layer of uncertainty as Abiy’s government confronts armed insurgencies, ethnic tensions and a fragile post-war transition.
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