Six consequences of six months of war with Iran
WASHINGTON — Six months after the United States and Israel opened their military campaign against Iran, the war President Donald Trump once dismissed as a “little excursion” has settled into a deeply unpopular stalemate — and one that is threatening to consume his presidency.
Iran has not capitulated. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains badly disrupted. And there is no visible off-ramp from a conflict Trump predicted, at the outset, would last no more than four weeks.
The White House now appears to acknowledge that further strikes will not bring Tehran to its knees. Instead, the United States is shifting back to economic pressure in hopes of squeezing Iran’s government, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio telling allies that Washington is unlikely to launch new attacks “for the time being.”
What comes next is uncertain. But many of the war’s most durable consequences — for the United States, Iran and the world — are already visible. Here are six of them.
1. Trump is paying a political price.
The war was never popular, and it has become less so. Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, with higher gasoline prices cutting directly into the 2024 campaign promise that defined his return to office: making life more affordable for Americans.
Trump, who ran on ending foreign wars, has argued that Iran’s missile buildup and nuclear work left him no choice. But most voters are not convinced. Only 31% of Americans approve of the conflict, the polling shows — a lower figure than support for other recent U.S. conflicts at a similar stage, including the war in Afghanistan, which polled above 50% for years in Gallup surveys.
The political fallout extends beyond the White House. With the Republican Party defending narrow majorities in both chambers of Congress in November’s midterms, anger over prices is a direct threat to the party’s grip on power.
The conflict has also deepened a divide among Republicans: one wing, more isolationist, wants to wind the war down quickly; another believes Trump should keep the military pressure on Tehran.
2. The world economy has been shaken — but not broken.
The U.S. and Israeli strikes initially triggered fears of a crippling energy shock. The Strait of Hormuz, which narrows to about 21 miles (34 km) between Iran and Oman, carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas. Disruption sent prices climbing and raised warnings of a global recession.
The damage has been real but less severe than many economists first feared. The International Monetary Fund has cut its global growth forecast twice since the war began, now expecting 3.0% growth this year, down from 3.3% in January.
Still, the world economy has proven more resilient than it was during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Large economies are far less energy-intensive, and strong consumer spending and investment — much of it tied to the artificial-intelligence boom — have absorbed some of the shock.
3. Iran is wounded, but not finished.
Iran’s military and economy have taken severe blows, but Tehran remains capable of striking back and can still choke the Strait of Hormuz.
Adm. Brad Cooper, the top U.S. military commander for the Middle East, told Congress in May that U.S. forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of Iran’s air-defense systems. Iran’s air force, once flying up to 100 sorties a day, is no longer conducting missions, he said.
Yet Iran still has drones and missiles, and it has used them against shipping and U.S. installations across the region. Reuters reported in March that the United States could confirm with certainty that it had destroyed only about a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal; the fate of another third was unclear, though bombing likely damaged, destroyed or buried those missiles in tunnels and bunkers, according to sources.
The war has killed thousands and deepened Iran’s economic crisis. Food inflation stood at 128% year-on-year in July, according to Iran’s Statistical Center. But the conflict has also pushed political divisions into the background and given Tehran cover for a tougher crackdown on dissent.
4. The Middle East is more volatile, and U.S. allies are exposed.
The campaign was intended to remove Iran as a threat to the region. Analysts say it has instead left Tehran emboldened and the region less secure.
Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states hit American military and diplomatic facilities and forced disruptions in air travel.
Iran’s strikes on shipping, together with a Houthi blockade targeting Saudi-linked traffic in the Red Sea, have driven up insurance and transport costs across the Gulf. The effect reaches far beyond individual vessels, rippling through supply chains and adding fresh uncertainty to economies that had been trying to diversify beyond oil.
5. Iran’s nuclear program has been set back — but the threat is murkier.
U.S. and Israeli strikes, both during a June 2025 assault and in the opening phase of the current war, badly damaged three known uranium-enrichment plants and suspected weapons sites. Israeli strikes have also killed leading nuclear scientists.
U.S. intelligence assessments in May put Iran’s nuclear “breakout time” — the time needed to produce enough fissile material for a bomb — at up to one year, up from as little as six months before the war. Preventing an Iranian bomb is Trump’s stated top objective.
But the true state of the program is uncertain. U.N. inspectors have not returned to Iran’s nuclear sites, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to verify the location of roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% purity since the 2025 strikes. That stockpile could potentially be further enriched to weapons grade at a covert facility. Iran has long denied seeking a nuclear weapon.
6. U.S. military readiness is stretched.
The U.S. military has lost drones and aircraft, both to Iranian fire and to accidents. A May report from the Congressional Research Service listed 42 U.S. military aircraft lost in the conflict.
Munitions are a growing concern. Reuters has reported that the military used “virtually all” of its global stockpile of certain precision missiles. By July, according to a Center for Strategic and International Studies estimate, the United States had consumed about 65% of its Patriot interceptors and drawn down its THAAD interceptor stockpile by at least 38%.
Washington has shifted fighter jets, warships and other assets from Europe and the Asia-Pacific to the Middle East, extending deployments and raising questions about U.S. readiness in other theaters. The USS Gerald R. Ford spent more than a year deployed — its longest since the Vietnam War — while lawmakers raised concerns about conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln after 200 consecutive days at sea. The Lincoln was replaced last week by a carrier pulled from the Pacific, a striking illustration of how much this war is taxing the U.S. military.