Soybean Futures Slump as Export Data Disappoints, Market Eyes USDA Crush Report
Soybean futures closed the trading week firmly in the red, with front-month contracts shedding 10 to 11 points on Friday. The downward pressure was felt across the complex, pulling the national average cash price for soybeans 2 3/4 cents lower to $10.05. Soymeal futures followed suit, dropping $3.00 to $3.30 per ton, while Soy Oil futures retreated by 60 points.
The slide was fueled by Thursday's release of USDA Export Sales data, which revealed a concerning trend. Total export commitments for the marketing year reached 33.85 million metric tons (MMT) as of January 22—a figure that sits 20% below the same period last year. Analysts note these sales have achieved only 79% of the USDA's full-year export estimate, trailing the five-year average pace of 87%. This gap highlights ongoing challenges in international demand, particularly from key buyers like China.
Market participants are now shifting focus to domestic consumption metrics. The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly crush data on Monday, with the pre-report consensus estimating that 230.4 million bushels of soybeans were processed in December. A strong number could help offset the weak export narrative and provide a floor for prices.
At the close, March 2026 Soybeans settled at $10.62, down 10 1/4 cents. The nearby cash price was quoted at $9.95 1/1, also down 10 1/4 cents. Further out on the curve, May 2026 futures finished at $10.75 3/4, and July 2026 at $10.89 3/4, both recording 10-cent losses.
Market Voices:
Eleanor Vance, Commodity Analyst at Agrimax Insights: "The export numbers confirm what we've suspected—global demand is softening. The market needs a robust crush report on Monday to remind us that domestic biofuel and feed demand remain foundational pillars."
Marcus Thorne, Independent Grain Broker: "It's a classic case of the market pricing in reality. We've had ideal weather in South America, and now the export sales are reflecting increased competition. This correction was overdue."
Dr. Lena Rodriguez, Agricultural Economist at Heartland University: "While concerning, this year-over-year decline isn't catastrophic. It does, however, signal that U.S. beans are struggling on price competitiveness. The focus must shift to value-added products like soymeal and oil to maintain margin."
Rick Dalton, Founder of 'Farmers First' Advocacy Group: "This is what happens when we put all our eggs in the export basket. Twenty percent down? That's a disaster in the making for producers already squeezed by input costs. Washington and the USDA need to wake up and secure new trade deals, now."
Disclosure: On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data herein is solely for informational purposes. This article was adapted from a report originally published on Barchart.com.