Soybean Prices Slip as Market Weighs Export Data, Brazil's Harvest Progress

Soybean futures extended losses into Monday's session, with prices down 5 to 6 cents at midday. The national average cash price followed suit, dipping 4 1/4 cents to $9.93 1/4, according to cmdtyView data. The product markets were mixed, with soymeal futures gaining 30 to 50 cents while soy oil futures fell 52 points.

The latest export data from the USDA's Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) provided a nuanced picture. For the week ending January 29, soybean export shipments totaled 1.31 million metric tons (MMT), a slight 1.9% dip from the previous week. However, the figure remains 14.9% higher than the same week last year. China was the leading destination, taking 740,004 MT, followed by Mexico (137,596 MT) and Egypt (121,059 MT). Despite recent improvements, cumulative marketing year exports since September 1 stand at 21.99 MMT, still a significant 35.7% behind last year's pace, though the deficit has narrowed by nearly 10 percentage points since early January.

Trade policy developments added another layer to the market's calculus. Just before midday, former President Donald Trump announced via Truth Social that a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had concluded positively. The discussed terms included a reduction of U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India reportedly agreeing to purchase over $500 billion in U.S. energy, technology, agricultural, coal, and other products. India, a historically top-five buyer of U.S. bean oil and the leading buyer in 2025, could become an even more significant market if this framework materializes.

On the speculative front, the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed money funds adding 7,261 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options as of January 27, bringing their total net long to 17,321 contracts.

Market participants are awaiting the USDA's monthly crush report, due later today. Analysts anticipate December's soybean crush to come in around 230.4 million bushels.

Attention remains fixed on South American supply. Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported the 2026 soybean harvest at 10% complete as of last Thursday. Meanwhile, crop estimates continue to trend upward. StoneX raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 4 MMT to 181.6 MMT, a move mirrored by Celeres, which increased its estimate by 4.1 MMT to 181.3 MMT. The prospect of a larger harvest from a key competitor continues to weigh on U.S. price prospects.

At a Glance: Key Price Levels (Midday Monday)

• Mar '26 Soybeans: $10.59, down 5 1/4 cents
• Nearby Cash: $9.93 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents
• May '26 Soybeans: $10.71 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents
• Jul '26 Soybeans: $10.84 1/2, down 6 cents

Market Voices: Trader Reactions

Michael Chen, Portfolio Manager at Heartland Ag Capital: "The export numbers show we're clawing back some ground year-over-year, which is constructive. But the elephant in the room is Brazil's crop. Every upward revision there puts a lid on how high our market can rally, regardless of speculative buying or trade talk."

Sarah Gibson, Independent Grain Analyst: "The potential India deal is interesting, but it's just a statement on social media for now. The market needs to see concrete agreements and shipping schedules. Until then, it's background noise against the very real pressure of a 181 MMT+ Brazilian harvest coming online."

Frank D'Amico, Veteran Floor Trader: "This is pathetic. We have funds piling into longs based on hopes and prayers about trade deals, while the actual supply data screams 'bear market.' The USDA's export numbers are still abysmal compared to last year. This feels like a market setting up for a sharp correction once the Brazil harvest hits its stride."

Dr. Anika Sharma, Trade Policy Economist at Global Food Security Institute: "A substantive U.S.-India deal would be a geopolitical and agricultural game-changer, creating a massive new demand anchor. However, the devil is in the implementation details and timing. It won't absorb the immediate surplus from Brazil, but it could fundamentally alter long-term export dynamics."

Disclosure: On the date of publication, the original author, Austin Schroeder, did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data is solely for informational purposes. This analysis is inspired by a report originally published on Barchart.com.