STKS Price Target Cut After Q4 Revenue Shortfall, But Analysts See Long-Term Upside
Despite a fourth-quarter revenue miss, The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (NASDAQ: STKS) is being framed by analysts as a story of resilience and future growth potential rather than a near-term stumble.
On January 16, Lake Street Capital Markets analyst Mark Smith adjusted the firm's outlook, lowering the price target on STKS to $4 from $5. The move followed the company's preliminary Q4 results, which showed revenue and comparable sales below expectations. Smith, however, upheld a Buy rating, characterizing the quarter as a "solid finish to the year" amid persistent consumer headwinds. The revised target reflects an updated long-term model, pegging the company's 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate at $102.4 million.
"The market is punishing the top-line miss, and rightly so," said Michael Thorne, a portfolio manager at Crestline Advisors. "But the maintained Buy signal tells you the analyst is looking through this quarter to the unit growth and margin story. In this sector, that forward visibility is key."
Looking ahead, management's guidance provided during the Q3 2025 earnings call remains intact. The company projects fiscal 2025 GAAP revenue between $820 million and $825 million, supported by plans to open five to seven new high-energy dining venues and lounges in the coming year.
"Another 'look ahead, not behind' analyst note for a stock that just disappointed," commented Lisa Hammond, an independent retail investor, voicing a more skeptical take. "Lowering the target by 20% but saying 'Buy' feels contradictory. It smells like giving cover rather than clear advice until the next earnings call."
Founded in 2004 and headquartered in Denver, The ONE Group has carved a niche in upscale, experiential dining. Beyond its owned brands like STK Steakhouse, its hospitality management services for high-end hotels and casinos provide a diversified, asset-light revenue stream.
"The model has proven scalable," noted David Chen, a restaurant industry analyst. "The miss is a concern, but their expansion pipeline and B2B service arm provide multiple levers for growth. The valuation reset might actually create a better entry point for patient investors aligned with their 2026 targets."
The broader context of cautious consumer spending on dining out adds weight to the quarterly shortfall. However, the company's specific growth strategy and maintained long-term financial targets appear to be the lens through which supportive analysts are viewing the stock.