Strait of Hormuz Closure Pushes Oil Prices Higher, Reopening Poses Daunting Military and Economic Hurdles

PARIS (AP) — Soaring prices at gasoline pumps across the globe are being directly fueled by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint for Persian Gulf energy exports, now blockaded by the Iran conflict. The strategic waterway's status is so critical to the world economy that allied governments are already drafting complex plans to restore safe passage—a mission military analysts describe as fraught with extreme danger and significant commercial headwinds.

French President Emmanuel Macron is spearheading an international initiative to eventually clear the vital passage, aiming for a future where oil, gas, and commercial goods can flow freely once more. The proposed blueprint involves potential warship escorts for tankers and cargo vessels through the strait, but only after a significant de-escalation of hostilities.

Retired naval officers with direct experience in the region offer a sobering assessment. They warn that attempting to force the strait open while combat continues would leave commercial vessels as "sitting ducks" in the confined shipping lanes.

"In the current climate, sending any vessel, military or civilian, into the Strait of Hormuz would be a suicidal endeavor," retired French Vice Adm. Pascal Ausseur told The Associated Press. He emphasized that only a verifiable ceasefire could shift the calculus "from suicidal to merely dangerous," creating a window for escorted transits to begin.

The allied navies likely to be involved are not starting from scratch. French, American, and British forces have gained hard-won experience countering missiles and drones while escorting commercial traffic through Houthi-threatened waters in the Red Sea—a campaign that has stretched crews and equipment thin.

Capt. Jérôme Henry, who commanded the French frigate Alsace when it intercepted three ballistic missiles in 2024, described the relentless pressure. "The crew didn’t get much sleep," he recalled, highlighting the exhausting reality of sustained defense operations.

However, experts caution that the challenge in the Hormuz would be of a different magnitude. "The risks for shipping are 'much greater' than in the Red Sea," said retired Vice Adm. Michel Olhagaray, a former commander in the region. Iran possesses a far more advanced and layered arsenal—including anti-ship cruise missiles, drones, fast-attack craft, and naval mines—capable of targeting the entire strait.

"Before the heat can decrease... most of the offensive installations on land in Iran would have to be neutralized," Olhagaray stated. "That will not happen at all—not at all—in the near future."

Beyond the military hurdle lies a formidable economic barrier: insurance. Premiums for vessels transiting the strait have skyrocketed to what France's transport minister called "insane" levels. Marcus Baker of Marsh Risk noted that tanker insurance rates now approach those charged for ships in the Black Sea during the Ukraine war.

"Shipowners are not going to operate at a loss," said Ausseur, now a think tank director. Potential naval escorts may provide some confidence to insurers, but restoring commercial viability will be a slow process contingent on demonstrated, lasting security.

Reader Reactions:

Sarah Chen, Shipping Analyst, London: "The insurance market is the first reality check. Even with warships present, underwriters will need weeks of incident-free passage before premiums normalize. The supply chain impact will linger long after the last shot is fired."

David Miller, Former Tanker Captain, Houston: "Having sailed through Hormuz for two decades, the idea of a military corridor is the only feasible solution. But the coordination between navies and merchant marines must be flawless. One mistake in those narrow lanes could be catastrophic."

Rebecca Vance, Energy Policy Advocate, Berlin: "This is the predictable consequence of decades of geopolitical instability centered on the Gulf. Every spike in oil prices is a tax on the global poor and a stark reminder of our failed energy transition policies."

Marko Tirana, Political Commentator, Warsaw: "The West dithers while a regime holds the global economy hostage. The endless planning and 'de-escalation' talk is a gift to Tehran. If the strait is vital, then secure it decisively. This paralysis is costing us all."

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Mae Anderson in New York and Sylvie Corbet in Paris contributed to this report.