Strategy’s Earnings Are Coming. Here’s What the Street Is Watching.
Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) is set to report first-quarter earnings on May 5, and investors are bracing for another quarter shaped as much by crypto volatility as by software sales.
The company, which holds more than 800,000 Bitcoin tokens on its books, has seen its stock swing wildly in 2026—up roughly 20% from a sharp early-year dip. Those moves have largely tracked Bitcoin’s own gyrations, with Strategy often amplifying both rallies and selloffs due to its outsized crypto exposure.
One notable shift this quarter: Strategy raised about $82 million through share sales but didn’t add to its Bitcoin pile. That has some analysts wondering whether the company is taking a more cautious approach to capital allocation after years of aggressive accumulation. Under fair-value accounting rules, Strategy’s reported earnings remain highly sensitive to crypto price swings.
Wall Street is looking for revenue between $135 million and $140 million, up roughly 10% year-over-year. In the prior quarter, Strategy posted $123 million in revenue but recorded a staggering $12.6 billion net loss tied to Bitcoin valuation adjustments. The company hasn’t issued formal guidance but has previously flagged a 22% to 26% Bitcoin yield target.
“This is a binary event for the stock,” said David Tran, a portfolio manager at Horizon Equity Partners. “If Bitcoin holds or rallies into the print, MSTR could rip higher. But if crypto sentiment sours, this thing could get ugly fast. I’m not touching it until I see the cash flow from the software side actually matter.”
Others are more measured. “The narrative is still intact—Strategy is essentially a leveraged Bitcoin proxy with a software tailwind,” said Rachel Kim, an analyst at Stone Harbor Capital. “The real question is whether the market will reward the company for restraint or punish it for not buying the dip.”
Longtime shareholder Marcus Webb, a retail investor from Austin, Texas, was blunt: “I’m tired of the theatrics. Every quarter it’s the same story—Bitcoin goes up, they look like geniuses; Bitcoin goes down, they look like they’re bleeding out. Just give me some actual software growth for once.”
With Bitcoin still hovering near recent highs and no new purchases this quarter, Strategy’s report could set the tone for crypto-linked equities into mid-2026. Expect volatility either way.