Super Bowl Bets Shift: Prediction Markets Set to Capture Millions as Legal Sportsbooks Face Geographic Hurdles
This year's Super Bowl is shaping up to be a landmark event not just on the field, but in the rapidly evolving world of sports wagering. Federally regulated prediction markets, which only began offering sports-related contracts in late 2024, are poised for a potential windfall as geographic restrictions on traditional online sportsbooks channel bettors their way.
The American Gaming Association estimates $1.76 billion will be legally wagered on the Big Game. Analysis from Citizens Bank suggests prediction markets are already capturing about 5% of the total U.S. legal sports betting handle annually. Applying that figure to the Super Bowl implies nearly $88 million could migrate from sportsbooks to prediction platforms—a figure that would more than triple the $27 million in volume reported by leading operator Kalshi for last year's event.
"The regulatory patchwork in the U.S. creates natural arbitrage opportunities," said Michael Torres, a financial analyst specializing in emerging markets. "When the biggest sporting event of the year is hosted in a state like California, which lacks legal sports betting, and features a team from Washington—another state without statewide mobile wagering—it's a perfect storm for prediction market growth."
As of Friday afternoon, Kalshi alone reported over $150 million in trading volume for Super Bowl-related contracts, signaling explosive interest. The landscape is also far more crowded this year. Alongside Crypto.com, new entrants include prediction markets branded by industry giants DraftKings and FanDuel, which are offering parlays. Even Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, reported over $500,000 in volume for its Super Bowl contracts. Robinhood, which withdrew last year due to regulatory uncertainty, has also re-entered the fray.
The implications extend beyond a single game. A recent report from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming posits a "plausible" path for U.S. prediction markets to reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume as they mature. Key to this growth is their integration into fintech apps, crypto exchanges, and sports gaming platforms, pending regulatory clarity.
User Reactions:
Sarah Chen, Sports Bettor from San Jose, CA: "Finally, a straightforward way to get in on the action without driving to Nevada or using a sketchy offshore site. The parlay options on these new platforms are a game-changer for someone like me."
David R. Miller, Former Gaming Compliance Officer: "This surge highlights a critical failure in our state-by-state regulatory model. We're pushing volume to less familiar, federally regulated exchanges while leaving consumer protection questions partially unanswered. It's a risky experiment on a massive scale."
Leo "Stats" Garza, Fantasy Sports Enthusiast: "The volume of prop bets available now is insane—from the length of the national anthem to the color of the Gatorade dump. It's engaging a whole new demographic that finds traditional moneyline bets boring."
Janice Powell, Consumer Advocate: "This is a regulatory shell game! They've just rebranded sports betting as 'event contracts' to bypass state laws. It's exploiting loopholes while doing little to address problem gambling. The entire system is being gamed, pun intended."