Super Bowl Stock Market Superstition: Why Your Portfolio Shouldn't Bet on the Seahawks
As the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots prepare to clash in Super Bowl LX this Sunday, a quirky piece of Wall Street folklore is getting its annual moment in the spotlight. The "Super Bowl Indicator" suggests that a win by a National Football Conference (NFC) team, like the Seahawks, foretells a rising stock market for the year, while a victory for the American Football Conference (AFC) spells decline.
On the surface, the indicator had a banner year in 2025. The Philadelphia Eagles' NFC triumph was followed by an S&P 500 surge of nearly 18%. Yet, financial analysts urge extreme caution. "This is a classic case of narrative overpowering data," says David Chen, a portfolio manager at Franklin Wealth Advisors. "Since the turn of the century, this indicator has been right less than half the time—you genuinely have better odds with a coin flip."
The theory's origins are rooted more in satire than finance. The late sports writer Leonard Koppett first noted the pattern in 1978 for The Sporting News, observing it held for 11 of the first 12 Super Bowls. He later told the Wall Street Journal he intended it as a joke about flawed statistical reasoning, calling it "too stupid to believe."
Despite its dubious origins, the indicator's uncanny accuracy through the late 1990s—boasting a success rate above 90%—cemented its place in market culture. However, its predictive power evaporated with the dot-com bust. Over the last two decades, it has failed more often than not, including spectacularly wrong calls during the 2008 financial crisis and the strong market rallies that followed back-to-back AFC wins by the Kansas City Chiefs in 2023 and 2024.
"It's a fun talking point, but no serious investor should make decisions based on it," notes Dr. Anya Sharma, an economist at the Brookings Institution. "There is zero causal mechanism linking a football score to corporate earnings or monetary policy. Last year's correct call was likely just reversion to the mean after a long streak of failures."
While sportsbooks and prediction markets currently favor the Seahawks, the only reliable indicator for investors remains a disciplined, long-term strategy based on fundamentals—not the final score in Santa Clara.
What Readers Are Saying
Michael R., retired banker in Tampa: "It's a harmless bit of fun. I remember traders joking about it on the floor in the '80s. Nobody actually traded on it, but it added color to the Monday morning recap."
Priya V., fintech data scientist in Austin: "This is precisely why financial literacy is crucial. People see a pattern and want to believe, ignoring the base rate. It's a beautiful example of how our brains are wired to find signals in noise."
"FedUpInvestor" (username), commenting online: "And this is why the average person thinks finance is a casino! The media trots out this nonsense every year instead of explaining real economics. It's irresponsible and distracts from the actual manipulation happening in the markets."
Carlos G., sports bar owner in Chicago: "Hey, if it gets my customers talking and spending during the game, I'm all for it. The Indicator is as much a part of the Super Bowl tradition now as the halftime show and overpriced ads."