Thai Heartland Reckoning: Rural Voters Rethink Loyalties, Threatening Pheu Thai's Populist Dominance

By Panu Wongcha-um, Reuters

UBON RATCHATHANI, Thailand — For generations, the political allegiance of Thailand's rural northeast was a foregone conclusion. The populist juggernaut of the Shinawatra family, currently embodied by the Pheu Thai party, commanded an unshakable loyalty. Today, in villages and farmlands, that bedrock is cracking.

In a wooden house in Ubon Ratchathani province, rubber farmer Pinittaya Boonlieng, 48, debates her vote with neighbours. The choice, once automatic for Pheu Thai, is now a calculation. "I am choosing the candidate," she states firmly. "The party is less important." Her sentiment echoes across a region battered by falling crop prices, rising debt, and a growing sense of political promises left unfulfilled.

A January survey by Khon Kaen University placed Pheu Thai's support in the northeast at 30.1%, trailing the national frontrunner, the reformist People's Party. The ruling conservative Bhumjaithai Party follows closely at 27.2%. This marks a stark shift from the 2023 election, where Pheu Thai secured a commanding 73 of 133 direct constituency seats in the northeast, home to nearly half of Thailand's registered farmers.

The erosion stems from multiple fronts. The party's flagship 10,000-baht ($317) digital wallet handout, a key 2023 campaign pledge, remains undelivered, blamed by former premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra on external economic pressures. Her subsequent ouster last year, following a botched handling of border tensions with Cambodia that sparked deadly clashes, further damaged the party's credibility. Compounding this is a wave of nationalism that has cooled Thaksin Shinawatra's once-warm relations with Cambodia's former leadership, and his current imprisonment on separate charges.

The result is a pivot toward personality over party. "I was like their number one supporter, but what they did isn't right," says Manee Ruamtham, 62, a rice farmer in Sisaket province who has abandoned Pheu Thai. "People lost faith." She now plans to vote for Nuchanat Jaruwongsethian, a former Pheu Thai lawmaker who defected to a smaller allied party. "People voted for me to fight for farmers," Nuchanat explains of her switch. "But one day it wasn't about this anymore. So how can I answer the people?"

Political machines are adapting. A defection strategy is in full swing, with parties aggressively recruiting popular local figures to capture their personal networks. Nationwide, at least 91 lawmakers elected in 2023 have switched parties ahead of the February polls, with Bhumjaithai absorbing 64 of them. In Ubon Ratchathani, former Pheu Thai MP Sudarat Pitakpornpunlop now campaigns for Bhumjaithai, assuring voters, "Even if I change to another four or five parties, I will be the same old person who worked for all of you."

Yet, Pheu Thai is not conceding its heartland. Candidate Cherdsak Phokkunlanon argues the party's core populist playbook—like guaranteeing agricultural prices—can rebuild support. "Pheu Thai policy will guarantee the price of agricultural goods, so that people will gain 30% profit," he asserts.

Analysts see the turmoil as a testament to the enduring, if evolving, power of patronage in a region where state support is often lacking. "These networks are long-term investments," explains Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University. "When people help you, you feel you owe them something... and they can still help politicians win elections."

As the election nears, the question is whether these personal loyalties, now untethered from their traditional party home, will forge a new political landscape in Thailand's most vital electoral battleground.

($1 = 31.5500 baht)

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um; Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Voices from the Ground

Anong, 52, School Teacher (Ubon Ratchathani): "It's a healthy change. Blind loyalty kept us stagnant. Now voters are thinking critically about who can actually deliver for their community, not just for Bangkok."

Chatri, 41, Small Business Owner (Bangkok): "This is chaos disguised as choice. These defectors are the same faces playing musical chairs. It weakens party platforms and makes policy-making after the election a nightmare of deal-making."

Lek, 67, Retired Civil Servant (Khon Kaen): "My heart is still with Pheu Thai's policies for the poor. But my head tells me to look at the local candidate's record. It's a painful split. The failure of the cash handout was a deep betrayal for many in my village."

Mali, 38, Freelance Writer (Chiang Mai): "It's infuriating! This isn't democracy maturing; it's politics degrading into pure personality cults and transactional relationships. The parties are admitting their ideas are worthless by shopping for MPs like football players. The rural poor deserve better than this recycled patronage."