The $10 Million-Plus Home Market Defies Gravity as Broader Housing Slows
As mortgage rates hover near two-decade highs, the dream of homeownership has receded for many Americans. But at the very pinnacle of the market, a different reality is unfolding—one where price tags seem to know no ceiling.
According to an exclusive analysis from Compass, U.S. residential sales priced at $10 million and above soared in 2025, with 2,261 transactions generating a staggering $38.63 billion in volume. This surge stands in sharp contrast to the cooling broader market, highlighting a sector governed by its own economic logic.
The Fuel Behind the Frenzy
"This isn't about interest rates; it's about capital seeking a haven," said market analyst Anya Sharma. The report points to historic stock market gains, major liquidity events from IPOs and acquisitions, and the steady transfer of generational wealth as primary drivers. For this cohort, a trophy property is less a home and more a strategic asset—a store of value offering privacy, tax advantages, and bespoke amenities from wellness sanctuaries to fortress-like security.
Coastal Powerhouses Hold Strong
Traditional luxury bastions continue to dominate. Manhattan led the nation with over $7.5 billion in ultra-luxury sales, a nearly 30% annual increase, reaffirming its status as a global safe-harbor for capital. On the West Coast, Greater Los Angeles saw transaction counts jump more than 50% and sales volume rise 61%, seemingly undeterred by local mansion taxes and environmental challenges.
South Florida's momentum also continued unabated, with Palm Beach and Miami drawing financial firms, family offices, and wealth migrating from higher-tax states.
The New Geography of Wealth
Perhaps the most significant shift is the geographic spread of eight-figure sales. Markets like San Diego, Dallas, and Houston—which saw minimal $10M+ activity pre-pandemic—are now establishing consistent footholds. Houston, for instance, recorded just one such sale in 2019 but has now posted double-digit transactions for two consecutive years. Scottsdale, Arizona, which had none before 2020, logged 13 in 2025 alone, with over 75 ultra-luxury homes in the pipeline.
Expert Commentary
"This isn't surprising," notes David Chen, a wealth advisor at Sterling Partners. "When you have unprecedented wealth creation in tech, finance, and biotech, that capital needs tangible, prestigious assets. Real estate at this level is a balance sheet item first, a home second."
"It's grotesque," counters Marcus Thorne, a professor of urban economics. "While families struggle with affordability, we're normalizing a parallel market where homes are just another speculative commodity for the 0.1%. This accelerates wealth inequality and does nothing for housing supply."
"The craftsmanship and architectural innovation in these properties is breathtaking," says Elena Rossi, an interior designer based in Miami. "It's driving a renaissance in custom home building and sustainable luxury materials."
The takeaway is clear: the ultra-luxury real estate market has decisively decoupled from the mainstream. As long as monumental fortunes are created, $10 million-plus properties will remain less about shelter and more about signaling, security, and parking substantial wealth in brick and mortar.