Tigray Rebels Abandon Mekelle as Ethiopian Forces Advance
MEKELLE, Ethiopia — Tigrayan rebels were abandoning Mekelle, the regional capital in northern Ethiopia, on Saturday, a local journalist and residents told AFP, as pro-government forces pressed toward the city.
The withdrawal marks a sharp reversal in a conflict that erupted on Sept. 23, when the Tigray People's Liberation Front launched attacks into neighboring regions, stoking fears of a return to the devastating 2020-2022 civil war.
Federal forces and pro-government militias have pushed the rebels back in recent days, advancing north toward Mekelle, according to accounts from the ground.
"TPLF militants and leaders are leaving Mekelle," the journalist said. Federal troops had not yet been seen inside the city, the journalist added, saying government offices and police stations had been left without security personnel.
Residents described a growing sense of vulnerability. "I am concerned that government and public property could be exposed to looting because there are no security forces in the city," one local resident told AFP.
"Lawlessness could spread in the city, and I am also afraid for my life. I want us to quickly return to law and order," another resident said.
A familiar insurgent strategy
The TPLF has long been the dominant political and military force in Tigray. Earlier this year, it expelled a government-appointed administration, reasserting control over much of the region.
In a video message Thursday, TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael suggested the group would return to guerrilla-style attacks, much as it did after Mekelle fell to government forces in 2020 during the early stages of the last war. That insurgent campaign eventually allowed the TPLF to retake the city in mid-2021.
"We operate under a strategy to strike the enemy wherever we choose," Debretsion said.
Regional tensions deepen
The fighting has spilled into Ethiopia's already fragile relations with Eritrea and Egypt, which Addis Ababa accuses of supporting the rebels. Ethiopia expelled 10 Eritrean diplomats and shut its embassy in Asmara on Thursday, while Eritrea responded that it would "sever all diplomatic ties."
Asmara accuses landlocked Ethiopia of planning to invade and seize access to its coastline. Debretsion, in his video message, framed the conflict in broader terms: "The war is regional and it is a war to control the Red Sea."
Ethiopia also expelled an Egyptian diplomat without explanation, prompting a reciprocal move by Cairo.
Government counter-offensive
The rebels initially made advances in neighboring Afar and Amhara states, fighting alongside local militias. But they were pushed back this week, and the government launched a counter-offensive into Tigrayan territory along three axes toward Mekelle, according to the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute think tank.
There were reports that Mekelle's airport, on the southern approach to the city, had fallen to a pro-government militia on Friday. Such claims are difficult to verify: media access is heavily restricted, and communications blackouts have been widespread.
Earlier, a humanitarian source told AFP on condition of anonymity that the TPLF had been entirely pushed out of Afar.
A fragile peace at risk
The TPLF ruled all of Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, when it was marginalized amid the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who comes from the Oromia region. The resulting tensions led to the 2020-2022 civil war, one of the deadliest conflicts in recent times, which left more than 600,000 people dead, according to the African Union.
The Pretoria Peace Agreement of 2022, brokered by African institutions and Washington, maintained an uneasy calm until last year but was never fully implemented. The latest fighting now threatens to unravel what remains of that deal and could deepen a humanitarian crisis in a region still recovering from war.
For civilians in Mekelle, the immediate concern is security. With police and government offices abandoned, residents fear looting and lawlessness could fill the vacuum before any new authority takes hold. The broader risk is that a new phase of insurgent warfare could draw in regional powers and further destabilize the Horn of Africa.