Triple Flag Precious Metals Hits Record Quarter—But Is the Stock Getting Ahead of Itself?

Triple Flag Precious Metals (TSX:TFPM) just delivered a blockbuster first quarter in 2026, with sales nearly doubling year-over-year and net income surging to US$116.93 million from US$45.52 million. The company also announced new royalty agreements at Gunnison and Northparkes, adding to a portfolio that already includes stakes in Northparkes, Hope Bay, Arthur, and Kemess.

For context, Q1 sales hit US$146.99 million compared with US$82.25 million a year earlier. Basic earnings per share from continuing operations came in at US$0.57, up from US$0.23. Adjusted EBITDA reached US$129 million, and the company sold over 30,000 gold equivalent ounces during the period. Management reaffirmed 2026 guidance in the 95,000 to 105,000 gold equivalent ounce range.

But here’s where the story gets interesting—and a bit complicated. Despite the record quarter, Triple Flag’s stock is trading at CA$44.49, with a 1-year total shareholder return of 48.17% and a 3-year return of 113.94%. The 30-day return of 9.52% and year-to-date gain of just 1% suggest recent momentum has cooled.

Analysts estimate a fair value of CA$62.42, implying the stock is roughly 28.7% undervalued. However, the current P/E ratio of 28.1x tells a different story. That’s significantly higher than the peer average of 19x, the Canadian Metals and Mining industry average of 16.1x, and the fair value P/E of 21.2x. In plain English: investors are paying a premium for future growth that hasn’t fully materialized yet.

“This is a classic case of a great company at a not-so-great price,” says Mark Henshaw, a Toronto-based mining analyst. “The record quarter is impressive, but the market has already priced in a lot of that optimism. If growth slows or margins compress, the stock could get hit hard.”

Not everyone is convinced the premium is a problem. Sarah Lin, a portfolio manager at a mid-cap resource fund, takes a more measured view: “Triple Flag’s royalty model gives it a structural advantage over traditional miners—lower operating costs, less exposure to cost inflation, and more predictable cash flows. A P/E of 28x is high, but it’s not unreasonable for a company with this kind of asset quality and growth trajectory.”

Then there’s the more emotional take. “Honestly, I think people are just chasing the shiny object,” says Jake Morrison, a retail investor who has followed Triple Flag for years. “The stock has nearly doubled in three years, and now everyone wants in. But 28 times earnings for a royalty company? That’s insane. You’re paying for perfection, and if anything goes wrong—like a production hiccup at Northparkes or a legal issue at Gunnison—you’re going to get burned.”

On the risk side, the company faces potential headwinds: declining output at certain assets, stepped-down streams, and operator or legal issues that could weaken the undervaluation case. The narrative assumes richer margins, faster revenue growth, and a higher future earnings multiple—all of which could prove optimistic if the macro environment shifts.

So where does that leave investors? Triple Flag is clearly a strong operator with a solid portfolio. But at 28.1x earnings, the bar is high. For those willing to bet on continued execution and favorable commodity prices, the stock may still offer upside. For value-conscious investors, cheaper alternatives exist in the same sector.

As always, the decision comes down to your own risk tolerance and time horizon. Triple Flag’s record quarter is a milestone, not a guarantee.