Trump Threatens 50% Tariff, Decertification of Canadian Aircraft in Escalating Trade Dispute
(Bloomberg) -- Former President Donald Trump has escalated trade tensions with a key ally, threatening to impose a 50% tariff on all Canadian-built aircraft sold in the United States and to decertify new planes from north of the border. The threat, issued via social media late Thursday, is tied to Trump's claim that Canadian regulators are unfairly blocking certification for Gulfstream Aerospace's latest business jets.
"Canada has wrongfully and illegally refused to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700, and 800 jets," Trump stated. "In response, the U.S. will decertify Bombardier Global Expresses and all aircraft made in Canada until Gulfstream—a great American company—is fully certified." He warned that failure to resolve the issue would trigger the massive tariff on aircraft imports.
The surprise announcement sent immediate ripples through the aviation industry and diplomatic circles. A White House official clarified that any decertification would apply only to new aircraft, not those already in service. However, the mechanism for such an action remains unclear, as aircraft certification is typically a safety-driven process handled by agencies like the FAA.
Analysts were quick to question the move's feasibility and rationale. "This is an unprecedented and dangerous blurring of trade policy with aviation safety protocols," said Richard Aboulafia, managing director at AeroDynamic Advisory. "Using certification as a bargaining chip could undermine a globally respected system and raises serious questions about legal authority."
The threat appears particularly aimed at Bombardier Inc., Gulfstream's main rival in the high-end business jet market. However, the collateral damage could extend to the U.S. regional airline network, which relies heavily on Bombardier's CRJ series jets. Major carriers like American Airlines and Delta Air Lines operate hundreds of these Canadian-made regional aircraft.
In a statement, Bombardier said it was "aware of the comments and are in contact with the Canadian government. We are confident in the strength of our certification processes and hope for a swift resolution to avoid disruption." The Canadian government and the FAA declined immediate comment.
The confrontation emerges against a backdrop of simmering trade tensions. Trump has recently criticized Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney for comments at Davos and expressed frustration over Canada's efforts to diversify trade, including with China. The countries are also preparing for talks on the USMCA trade pact.
For Bombardier, the stakes are high. Over half of its global fleet of more than 5,200 aircraft operates in the U.S., which accounted for 64% of its 2024 sales. The company also argues its supply chain is deeply integrated with the U.S. economy, sourcing parts from dozens of states. "A sustained threat like this creates immediate uncertainty for U.S. customers and could freeze orders," noted RBC analyst James McGarragle in a client note.
Industry observers suggest the certification dispute may be more nuanced than Trump's post implies, noting that Canada has already validated some Gulfstream models. The move is seen by some as a dramatic opening gambit ahead of broader trade negotiations, echoing Trump's prior use of tariff threats as leverage.
Reaction & Analysis
Michael Thorne, Trade Policy Analyst at the Atlantic Council: "This is a classic Trump-era tactic: create a high-stakes crisis to force concessions. But using aircraft certification, a technical safety function, as a weapon is a new and risky escalation that could backfire on U.S. airlines and corporate fleets."
Sarah Chen, VP of Operations at a Midwest-based charter airline: "Our fleet is 80% Bombardier. The uncertainty is paralyzing. We have deliveries scheduled for next quarter. Are we supposed to just halt expansion? This isn't policy; it's chaos that hurts American businesses."
David P. Miller, former FAA official (retired): "Decertification isn't a switch you flip. It's a legal process based on safety findings. Politicizing it undermines the entire international aviation safety framework we've built over decades. It's reckless."
Janice Kowalski, commentator on 'America First' podcast: "Finally! Someone is standing up to Canada's protectionist racket. They've been blocking our planes to protect their subsidized Bombardier for years. Tariffs are the only language these trade cheats understand. It's about time we fought back."
--With reporting from Melissa Shin, Phoebe Sedgman, and Laura Dhillon Kane.
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