TurkStream Gas Flows Rise as EU Ban Looms, Highlighting Europe's Energy Dilemma
Russia has increased natural gas deliveries to Europe through its TurkStream pipeline, according to data analyzed by Reuters, providing a temporary boost to a handful of EU nations even as Brussels moves to permanently sever energy ties with Moscow.
Calculations based on figures from the European gas transmission group Entsog show flows via the subsea pipeline to Southeast Europe averaged 55.8 million cubic meters per day in January, a rise of over 10% compared to the same month last year. This sustained the elevated delivery levels seen in December, making TurkStream—which runs under the Black Sea to Turkey and onward into the Balkans—the sole remaining pipeline route for Russian gas into the EU.
The increase comes against a stark backdrop. The shutdown of the Nord Stream pipelines after the 2022 explosions and the cessation of transit through Ukraine at the start of 2025 have slashed Russia's pipeline gas exports to Europe by over 40% since 2024, driving total sales to their lowest point in half a century. The geopolitical landscape shifted further last month when the 27 EU member states formally adopted regulations to phase out all Russian gas imports, with a full ban on pipeline gas set for autumn 2027.
"This uptick on TurkStream is a short-term logistical adjustment, not a strategic reversal," said Markus Weber, an energy analyst at the European Policy Centre. "It highlights the practical challenges of a coordinated exit. Some landlocked Central European states still lack viable alternatives to Russian gas in the immediate term, making their transition path steeper."
The gas primarily reaches Hungary and Slovakia via the Balkan Stream extension, countries that have been critical of a full embargo. The data suggests that while the EU's political direction is clear, physical supply chains are unwinding unevenly across the continent.
"It's outrageous that we're still funding Putin's war machine through this pipeline," said Elena Kovac, a member of the European Parliament from Lithuania. "Every extra cubic meter is a betrayal of our principles and a security risk. The 2027 ban deadline is too distant; we need an accelerated, mandatory phase-out for all member states now."
Other observers note the increase may reflect colder January weather and ongoing supply contract obligations, rather than a new political opening. David Chen, a senior fellow at the Global Energy Institute, offered a more measured view: "The numbers tell two stories. The year-on-year rise on TurkStream shows residual dependency. But the 50-year low in total sales confirms the decoupling is real and largely irreversible. The market has fundamentally reorganized."
As the EU builds out its LNG terminal capacity and renewable infrastructure, the TurkStream corridor remains a contentious, albeit diminishing, lifeline for a divided region navigating the final stages of its energy divorce from Russia.
Reporting contributed by Tsvetana Paraskova. Analysis by the Global Energy Desk.