UK Population Growth Hits Slowest Non-Pandemic Pace Since 1998
The UK’s population is estimated to have grown at its slowest rate outside the COVID-19 pandemic since 1998, according to new figures from the Office for National Statistics, as a steep decline in net migration and a narrowing gap between births and deaths reshaped the country’s demographic picture.
The UK added 227,665 people in the year to mid-2025, bringing the total population to an estimated 69.5 million. That amounts to an increase of just 0.33% — the lowest annual rate since 1998, excluding 2020, when the pandemic disrupted migration and daily life.
The slowdown marks a sharp turn from the post-pandemic surge. Population growth reached 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024, driven largely by record levels of net international migration. Net migration measures the difference between people arriving in the UK for the long term and those leaving to live abroad.
In the year to mid-2025, net migration is estimated at 222,900, down sharply from 651,700 in the previous 12 months. The ONS said the decline was the main reason for the weaker overall population growth.
Natural change — the difference between births and deaths — added only 4,900 people to the UK population over the period. There were 652,400 births, the lowest total in more than four decades, and 647,500 deaths. That compared with natural change of 16,200 in the previous year. It was still higher than the 12 months to mid-2023, when deaths exceeded births and natural change was minus 16,300.
The figures also show increasingly divergent trends across the four nations of the UK. England was the only country to record a meaningful increase, with population growth of 0.39% in the year to June 2025. Scotland and Northern Ireland saw almost no growth, at 0.04% and 0.03% respectively. Wales recorded a 0.09% decline — its first year-on-year population drop since 2015.
Wales and Scotland both recorded more deaths than births. The ONS attributed this in part to older average populations in those nations compared with England and Northern Ireland, which tends to produce a higher death rate and a lower birth rate.
“The average number of children that are born to women in Wales and Scotland is also lower than the rest of the UK, which contributes to fewer births,” the agency said.
Net international migration contributed to population growth in all four countries. In Wales, however, that gain was more than offset by negative natural change, meaning the number of deaths exceeded births, pushing the overall population down.
Several factors appear to have driven the recent drop in net migration. The ONS pointed to a decline in arrivals from outside the European Union for work-related reasons, following policy changes introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the current Labour administration. Those changes tightened the rules for entering the UK for employment.
There have also been fewer arrivals through official humanitarian resettlement schemes, while more people have been leaving the UK.
The latest estimates come against a backdrop of longer-term demographic pressure. Projections published earlier this year by the ONS suggested that deaths could outnumber births every year in the UK from 2026 onward. They also indicated that population growth would continue to slow before coming to a halt, with the UK population starting to fall in the mid-2050s.
The projections were based on current and past trends, particularly the recent fall in net migration and lower fertility rates. The ONS stressed that they are not forecasts or predictions and do not account for what may or may not happen in the future.
Even so, the latest data underline how quickly the UK’s demographic momentum has shifted. After several years in which migration drove unusually rapid growth, the country is now edging closer to a period in which births, deaths and migration are more finely balanced — with potentially significant consequences for the labor force, public services, housing demand and the pace of population change across the four nations.