Ukraine Regains Battlefield Momentum as Drone Offensive Offsets U.S. Aid Gaps
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent assertion that his forces are “holding more positions and inflicting more damage” on Russian troops marks a notable shift in the war’s dynamics—one that seemed unlikely just months ago, when dwindling U.S. aid and stalled peace talks appeared to hand Moscow the upper hand.
Speaking on May 19, Zelensky pointed to what he described as “dynamic changes” in Kyiv’s favor. His optimism would have been difficult to forecast earlier this year, when the Trump administration was scaling back support, Washington-led negotiations had stalled, and Russian strikes were systematically pounding Ukraine’s energy grid and critical infrastructure through the winter.
But a surge in Ukraine’s domestic drone production and tactical innovation has helped fill the void left by reduced American assistance. Successful unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) strikes—both on front-line positions and deep inside Russian territory—have given Kyiv fresh grounds for confidence.
“The overall dynamics of the war are gradually shifting in Ukraine’s favor compared to previous months,” said Giorgi Revishvili, a military analyst and founder of the Russia Analyzed Substack. “The situation for Ukraine is markedly better than it was last year.”
Ukraine’s defense ministry has reported a significant increase over the past year in the production of reconnaissance, mid-strike, and deep-strike drone systems, as well as fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drones, which have proven particularly effective along contested sections of the frontline.
“Over the last six months Ukraine has demonstrated that it has the initiative in drones,” said Matthew Arnold, director of the Democratic Resilience in a New Age of War Program at LSE IDEAS, the London School of Economics think tank. He told Newsweek that Kyiv is drawing confidence from the fact that the withdrawal of much U.S. aid did not collapse its war effort. “It is learning, adapting, and deploying drones quicker and more successfully than Russia can.”
Revishvili noted a notable escalation in Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign targeting Russian logistics at operational depths of 18 to 65 miles inside occupied territories, particularly in southeastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have also intensified front-line operations to degrade Russian troop strength while expanding deep- and mid-range strikes to pressure the Russian economy and disrupt supply lines in the operational rear, he said.
One of Moscow’s original wartime objectives was to establish a land corridor linking occupied Crimea to Rostov in Russia—an effort Ukraine tried to thwart during its unsuccessful 2023 counteroffensive. “Now, Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian supply lines there almost daily, and even pro-war Russian military bloggers are sounding the alarm,” Revishvili said.
General Andriy Biletskyi, commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, told Reuters that if Kyiv can sustain its current momentum over several months, it could force President Vladimir Putin to abandon ambitions for parts of the Donetsk region that Russia does not currently occupy. Russian demands in U.S.-backed peace talks have included obtaining the entire oblast Moscow claims to have annexed in eastern Ukraine, a position Kyiv has repeatedly rejected.
Biletskyi described the Russian army as exhausted and incapable of major breakthroughs—a situation compounded by Elon Musk’s decision to cut Russian forces’ access to his Starlink satellite internet service. Biletskyi said his troops are holding the flank around Sloviansk, the northern bastion of eastern Ukraine’s heavily defended Fortress Belt, forcing Moscow into costly head-on assaults that have resulted in heavy losses of both personnel and field commanders.
Ukraine’s forces need to identify directions “where we can improve our positions, take some strategic points” that would give Kyiv leverage in any future negotiations, Biletskyi said, emphasizing that the next six months on the battlefield “are the most critical.”
Revishvili added that if Ukraine can sustain and expand its campaign, it could “create significant challenges for Russian forces. Controlling the operational depth and steadily attriting logistics can significantly affect Russian front-line operations, reducing their ability to sustain offensive momentum and advance. This could also create gaps across the frontline that Ukraine may be able to exploit. However, the extent to which Ukraine can capitalize on such opportunities remains to be seen and will depend, in part, on its ability to address ongoing manpower shortages.”
Zelensky said this month that Ukraine had retaken nearly 230 square miles of territory so far in 2024. By contrast, Russia’s advances have slowed to just 40 square miles over the same period—compared with 625 square miles in the first five months of 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The U.S.-based think tank said Kyiv’s forces are challenging the war’s positional character and could soon stage limited mechanized assaults.
ISW analysts said Ukraine has re-secured an overall drone advantage, and its success in curbing Russian advances and reversing gains—combined with the reintroduction of some tactical mechanized maneuver—“may mark the beginning of a new phase of the war.”
Zelensky also noted that Ukrainian “middle strikes” against Russian air defenses and military logistics up to 120 miles behind the front line had quadrupled since February. These strikes have slowed Russian advances and hampered the transport of personnel and matériel to the front.
Beyond the battlefield, Ukrainian drones have hit targets far from the front—ranging from export terminals on the Gulf of Finland to inland refineries. On Thursday night, Ukrainian forces struck an oil facility in Volgograd, just a day after hitting the Tuapse oil refinery in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region for the fifth time this spring. On May 18, a Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow targeted Sheremetyevo Airport, the Moscow Oil Refinery, a petroleum pumping station, and two firms producing electronics for the Russian military.
“It is much more palpable inside Russia that the war is shifting through increased Russian vulnerability inside the homeland,” said Arnold. “Ukraine has a very deliberate strategy of undermining Putin’s notion that he can wage war on Ukraine with limited costs to Russia’s economy or people.”
Despite reports of a decline in Russia’s battlefield performance, Putin still believes his forces can capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (the Donbas region) by autumn, according to the Financial Times, citing unnamed sources who have spoken with the Russian president. Putin also reiterated his call for Ukrainian troops to surrender, claiming they were about to collapse—a stance that suggests he remains unwilling to back down. The ISW noted that this may be partly fueled by the Russian military command, which likely shows Putin exaggerated maps, giving him a false sense of the front-line situation.
Revishvili cautioned that certain axes remain difficult for Ukraine. Around Kostiantynivka, a critical city for the defense of Donetsk Oblast, Russian forces are employing small-group infiltration tactics while leveling the city through heavy bombardment, seeking to make it untenable for Ukrainian defenders. “Russian troops are working to establish footholds and expand their presence around the city before gradually penetrating deeper into urban areas,” he said.
“The battle for Donetsk is not solely a military matter—it also carries significant political weight,” Revishvili added. “Therefore, Russia must experience not only military setbacks but political ones as well.”
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