UN Warns El Niño Could Become a Strong Event, Raising Risks of Extreme Weather Worldwide
The United Nations' weather and climate agency issued a fresh warning on Friday, stating that the current El Niño is set to develop into a strong event between July and September, fueling the likelihood of extreme weather patterns worldwide.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed that El Niño conditions have already taken hold in the tropical Pacific and are expected to strengthen quickly in the coming months. The agency urged governments and communities to prepare for potential impacts, including droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering shifts in global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months, oscillating with its counterpart, La Niña.
According to the WMO’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update, the current event is forecast to strengthen rapidly, reaching what the agency classifies as a "strong" level — the third-highest on its four-tier scale (weak, moderate, strong, very strong).
“El Niño conditions have developed and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in many parts of the world,” the WMO said in a statement.
The agency noted that leading global climate centers using different models have shown consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.
“The models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook,” the WMO added.
El Niño typically peaks between November and February, with the resulting temperature spikes often occurring later. The last strong El Niño contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and pushed 2024 to the all-time high of about 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900 average).
Celeste Saulo, the WMO’s secretary-general, emphasized the urgency: “El Niño conditions are already under way and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall, and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions.”
The WMO said it is ramping up early warning support to help guide preparedness, especially in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health. “Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” Saulo added.
The update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N — covering nearly all populated regions outside the poles. For the July-to-September period, rainfall outlooks consistent with a strengthening El Niño point to above-normal precipitation in parts of the southwestern United States, and below-normal rainfall across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
While the WMO says there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it acknowledges that a warmer ocean and atmosphere can amplify the associated effects by providing more energy and moisture for extreme weather, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
During the Northern Hemisphere summer, the warm waters associated with El Niño can fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin.