UN Warns of Potential El Niño Return in 2026, Threatening New Temperature Extremes

GENEVA — The world may be on the brink of another climate swing, with the United Nations warning Tuesday that the warming El Niño phenomenon could re-emerge by the end of 2026, potentially fueling further global temperature records.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated that the recent, weak La Niña phase—a natural climate pattern that cools Pacific Ocean surface temperatures—is expected to fade into neutral conditions. From there, the climate system could tilt back toward El Niño, its warmer counterpart, before the year's close.

"We are closely monitoring a likely transition," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. "The most recent El Niño, which spanned 2023-24, ranked among the five strongest ever recorded and was a key driver behind the unprecedented global heat we witnessed." That event helped make 2023 the second-hottest year on record and pushed 2024 to an all-time high.

According to the latest WMO projections, the probability of neutral conditions stands at 60% for March-May, dropping slightly to 70% for April-June. The outlook shifts notably by May-July, with the chance of El Niño development rising to 40%. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration offers a similar forecast, estimating a 50-60% chance of El Niño forming during the July-September period and beyond.

Experts emphasize that these natural oscillations now unfold against the relentless backdrop of human-caused climate change. "El Niño and La Nina are natural drivers, but they are now supercharged by long-term global warming," the WMO report notes. "This combination intensifies extreme weather, disrupts seasonal rainfall, and amplifies temperature patterns, creating a compounded risk."

The agency's Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts above-average land surface temperatures across most of the globe from March to May. While rainfall patterns in the equatorial Pacific still reflect a fading La Niña signature, forecasts for other regions remain uncertain.

Saulo highlighted the critical role of seasonal forecasts in mitigating impacts. "These predictions are vital for climate-sensitive sectors—agriculture, health, energy, water—helping to avert millions in economic losses," she said. "They are essential climate intelligence for humanitarian planning and saving lives."

Expert Reactions:

Dr. Anya Sharma, Climate Scientist at the Pacific Institute for Resilience: "This forecast is a sobering reminder that we are not out of the woods. The transition from a cooling La Niña to a potential El Niño could mean the difference between bad heat and catastrophic heatwaves, especially in vulnerable regions already struggling with climate impacts."

Marcus Thorne, Agricultural Policy Analyst: "For farmers from Australia to the Americas, this isn't just a weather report—it's a business contingency plan. Early warnings allow for crop diversification and water management strategies that can protect food security and livelihoods."

Rebecca Cole, Environmental Advocate (Speaking sharply): "Another El Niño warning, another round of polite reports while emissions continue to soar. We're sleepwalking from one record-breaking climate event to the next. When will these forecasts trigger real, systemic action instead of just better-prepared disaster management?"

Professor Kenji Ito, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist: "The increasing precision of these models is a triumph of science. It gives cities and governments a crucial window to reinforce infrastructure, prepare health systems for heat stress, and protect the most exposed communities. This is where science directly serves society."