U.N. Warns Strong El Niño Could Drive Global Temperatures to New Highs
GENEVA (Reuters) — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned Tuesday that a moderate to potentially strong El Niño event is taking shape in the Pacific, a development that could push global temperatures sharply higher and amplify extreme weather patterns across the globe over the coming months.
El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, typically lasts nine to 12 months. The WMO said ocean temperatures in the region have risen rapidly since late April, with some subsurface readings exceeding 6 degrees Celsius above normal — a reservoir of heat that is now driving surface warming and fueling the event's intensification.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. She noted that the last El Niño, in 2023–2024, contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record.
The agency predicted above-average temperatures across most of the world from June through August, with the El Niño pattern likely persisting through November. Its effects are already reshaping regional climates: southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia may see increased rainfall, while Australia, Central America, Indonesia and parts of southern Asia are expected to face drought conditions. The phenomenon also has the potential to fuel hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific, the WMO said.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres called the forecast an urgent climate warning. “El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said, urging governments to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
While the WMO stressed that there is no evidence climate change is making El Niño events themselves more frequent or intense, it warned that rising baseline temperatures can worsen the impacts — turning a moderate El Niño into a driver of record-breaking heatwaves and more destructive storms.
The latest outlook comes as scientists monitor a rapid shift in equatorial Pacific conditions, with sea surface warming accelerating in late April and mid-May. The WMO said the unusually warm subsurface layer across the tropical Pacific is providing a deep reservoir of heat that will sustain the event in the months ahead.