US and Iran Edge Toward Deal: What’s Inside the Proposed Memorandum?
The United States and Iran have indicated they are closing in on an agreement that would transform the existing ceasefire—which ended weeks of open conflict—into a more durable settlement. Both sides are referring to a “memorandum of understanding” that would lay out a roadmap for resolving outstanding disputes, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the deal is still a “work in progress.”
“We’re either going to have a good agreement or we’re going to have to deal with it another way,” Rubio said during a visit to India on Monday.
The central thrust of the memo, if signed, would be to halt the fighting—a welcome development for both capitals. President Donald Trump faces midterm elections later this year amid sharply higher gasoline prices, while Iran’s economy remains in deep crisis. The agreement would then set in motion a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and a 60-day process for tackling other issues, chief among them Iran’s nuclear program.
Rubio said there was “a pretty solid thing on the table” regarding the strait’s reopening and Iran entering “a real significant time limited negotiation on nuclear matters.” A senior administration official told CNN on Sunday that the framework gives both parties “60 days to reach final deal points.”
According to the official, the potential deal would ensure Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon and would commit it to relinquishing highly enriched uranium—what Trump often calls “nuclear dust.” How the stockpile is disposed of would be negotiated in the next phase. “The important part of how this is structured is, if Iran doesn’t perform, they don’t get anything. No dust? No dollars. As the Strait opens, the blockade loosens proportionately,” the official said, adding, “This is ‘trust but verify’ on steroids.”
By Wednesday the framework was not yet finalized. Iranian state television said no step would be taken by Tehran without “tangible verification,” and that negotiations were “currently moving back and forth, with both sides refining the wording of the draft text.” Trump, after saying the deal was “largely negotiated,” warned Sunday that the U.S. would not rush. “If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one, not like the one made by Obama,” he posted on Truth Social, accusing the previous agreement of giving Tehran “a clear and open path to a Nuclear Weapon.”
Here’s what we know about some of the key issues at stake.
Strait of Hormuz and the Blockade
Trump wrote Saturday that the critical waterway would reopen under the memorandum. Multiple Iranian media outlets, some close to the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported Sunday that the strait would remain under Iranian supervision, with shipping allowed to return to pre-war levels over 30 days. Iran demands the U.S. blockade of its ports be lifted simultaneously. The memorandum would call for U.S. military forces to withdraw from the vicinity of Iran, according to Iranian state broadcaster IRIB. The U.S. administration has not commented on that claim.
Tehran has slightly softened its tone on collecting tolls from ships. “We are not seeking to collect tolls – services are provided; navigation services plus necessary measures to protect the environment of the Strait of Hormuz,” foreign ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Monday. However, Iran appears intent on maintaining greater control over passage than before the conflict. “Military ships are not included in this commitment” to reopen the strait, IRIB said Wednesday. Iran has insisted that management of the strait has nothing to do with the United States and would be coordinated with Oman.
Nuclear Stockpile and Enrichment
Iranian officials insist that negotiations on uranium can only begin once the memorandum ending the war is agreed. The semi-official Fars news agency said Sunday that “Iran has made no commitments in this agreement regarding handing over nuclear stockpiles, removing equipment, closing facilities, or even pledging not to build a nuclear bomb.” Still, a Tehran delegation met Qatari mediators in Doha on Monday for talks described as “generally positive” by Iran’s semi-official Tasnim agency.
Trump has repeatedly insisted that Iran must relinquish the more than 400 kilograms (900 pounds) of highly enriched uranium it possesses—much of it believed buried after U.S. strikes last year. U.S. officials repeat the refrain “No dust, no dollars.” Trump claimed Monday that Iran’s enriched uranium “will either be immediately turned over” to Washington to be destroyed “in conjunction and coordination” with Iran. The initial memorandum is not expected to cover enrichment in detail; bridging differences on that front will be one of the major challenges of a comprehensive deal.
Frozen Assets and Sanctions
With its economy in trouble, Iran demands the immediate unfreezing of billions of dollars in assets held in foreign banks. “At the very beginning of this process, the status of releasing the blocked assets must be clarified,” Baghaei said Saturday. Tasnim reported that $24 billion worth of Iranian assets could be released under the memorandum, with half that sum possibly freed when the deal is first announced. But a senior U.S. official told CNN that the unfreezing will occur only once the Strait of Hormuz has reopened. The U.S. has given no commitment on how those assets will be returned.
Sanctions—most imposed by the U.S. and Europe—also weigh heavily on Iran. “Lifting sanctions will not be discussed in this short timeframe,” Baghaei said Saturday, adding that details would be negotiated after the memorandum is finalized. Iran estimates removal of oil-related sanctions alone could generate nearly $10 billion in revenue over 60 days, per Fars. A U.S. official said sanctions would be lifted only after the strait is open and fully functioning again.
Missiles and Regional Fronts
During the conflict, U.S. officials insisted Iran’s longer-range ballistic missiles must be destroyed. Trump said the program “was growing rapidly and dramatically,” but there has been less recent talk of missiles being part of broader negotiations, even though Israel and Gulf Arab states see it as an urgent risk. It is also unclear how the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon will be addressed. Tasnim reported that the memo would demand “the declaration of the end of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Baghaei echoed that on Monday. But an Israeli source told CNN on Tuesday that forces will “expand operations” in Lebanon and “renew operations” in Beirut. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Monday the military would “intensify the blows” in Lebanon.
Earlier this month, Israeli and Lebanese delegations agreed to extend a tenuous truce—which Hezbollah is not party to—by 45 days. The Trump administration has doubled down on support for Israel’s campaign, with Trump telling Netanyahu he supports “freedom of action against threats on all fronts, including Lebanon.”
Bottom Line
Ultimately, Iran says it is ready for a “fair and balanced deal.” An Iranian source told CNN Sunday: “The most important thing for us is that the war must end for good in the whole Middle East.” Whether the memorandum can deliver that—and survive the 60-day test—remains the central question for the region and global oil markets.
This story has been updated with additional developments.
CNN’s Tal Shalev contributed to this report.
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