U.S. Antimony Shares Tumble as Policy Shift Clouds Expansion Ambitions

Shares of United States Antimony Corp. (NYSE American: UAMY) plunged sharply this week, reflecting investor unease after reports indicated the U.S. government is backing away from establishing price floors for critical minerals. The policy reversal arrives at a pivotal moment for the company, which recently announced plans to scale up its antimony processing operations in Bolivia.

The stock fell 14.5% in a single session and is down 18.7% over the past week to trade around $8.29. This sell-off contrasts with the stock's strong longer-term performance, which includes a 60% gain over the past month. Analysts suggest the dramatic pullback signals the market's heightened sensitivity to policy risk, which now overshadows the company's operational growth narrative.

"The reported policy shift removes a potential safety net for domestic producers like UAMY," said market strategist David Chen. "While the Bolivian expansion diversifies its geographic footprint, investors are questioning the profitability timeline in a less supported market environment."

Current valuation models present a mixed picture. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests the stock could be undervalued by nearly 25%, with a fair value estimate of $11.01. However, its price-to-sales ratio of 36.4x remains significantly elevated compared to industry peers, trading at an average of 7.5x. This disparity highlights the tension between near-term policy headwinds and long-term growth assumptions tied to capacity expansion and strategic mineral demand.

Investor Commentary:

• Michael Rourke, Portfolio Manager at Granite Peak Capital: "This is a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' scenario met with macro uncertainty. The Bolivian move is strategically sound for supply chain security, but the removal of potential price supports alters the near-term risk-reward calculus. The intrinsic discount is compelling for patient capital."
• Sarah Lin, Chief Analyst at ClearView Research: "The market is overreacting. The fundamental driver for antimony is its role in flame retardants and military applications, demand for which is independent of short-term policy. The pullback is a buying opportunity ahead of the expansion's operational milestones."
• Frank Torres, Independent Investor: "It's a disaster. The government talks up critical mineral independence then pulls the rug out. This company is betting on Bolivia while Washington changes the rules. The premium P/S ratio is a joke without policy backing—this could fall another 30%."
• Dr. Evelyn Reed, Resource Economist at State University: "The volatility underscores a broader market challenge: valuing junior miners amidst fluctuating industrial policy. UAMY's story is now a test case in separating geopolitical hope from operational reality."

The coming quarters will be critical for UAMY to demonstrate that its expansion can drive profitability regardless of policy support, as it navigates a sector where investor sentiment remains tightly linked to Washington's strategic priorities.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.