U.S. Intelligence Warns of Retaliatory Threats from Iran Following Khamenei's Death
By Jana Winter
WASHINGTON, March 2 (Reuters) – The United States is bracing for potential retaliatory actions from Iran and its regional allies in the wake of the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to a confidential Department of Homeland Security (DHS) threat assessment obtained by Reuters.
The report, dated February 28 and produced by the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis, concludes that while a large-scale physical attack on the U.S. homeland is improbable, Iran and its proxies "probably pose a persistent threat of targeted attacks." The assessment warns that retaliatory actions are "almost certain" to escalate if Tehran officially confirms Khamenei's death, which occurred during coordinated Israeli and U.S. strikes over the weekend.
In the immediate term, U.S. officials are most concerned about cyber operations. The intelligence document highlights the risk of low-level attacks by Iran-aligned "hacktivists," including website defacements and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) campaigns against American networks.
"We are in direct coordination with our federal intelligence and law enforcement partners as we continue to closely monitor and thwart any potential threats to the homeland," Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement to Reuters.
The geopolitical fallout continues to spread. Iran confirmed Khamenei's death on Sunday, a day after the strike initially announced by Israel and U.S. President Donald Trump. The DHS assessment further predicts Iran will continue targeting U.S. and allied assets in the Middle East and will likely blame senior U.S. officials for any domestic unrest stemming from Trump's calls for regime change.
Military engagements have intensified, with Israel striking Lebanon on Monday in response to attacks by Iran-backed Hezbollah. Concurrently, Tehran sustained missile and drone assaults on Gulf states hosting U.S. military facilities.
A separate incident in Austin, Texas, where a gunman killed at least two people at a bar on Sunday, is under investigation for potential links to the rising tensions. A U.S. law enforcement official told Reuters the deceased shooter was photographed wearing a shirt with the Iranian flag and the word "IRAN," along with a sweatshirt bearing the phrase "Property of Allah." Authorities stress it is too early to determine a definitive motive.
Reaction & Analysis
Reuters spoke to several analysts and former officials for their perspective on the escalating crisis:
Marcus Thorne, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies: "The intelligence assessment is measured but underscores a new phase of asymmetric risk. Iran's response will be calculated to demonstrate capability without triggering a full-scale war they cannot win. The cyber domain is their most likely and deniable battlefield."
Anya Desai, Professor of Middle Eastern Politics at Georgetown University: "Khamenei was the pillar of the Islamic Republic for decades. His removal creates a profound power vacuum. While the Revolutionary Guard will seek a forceful response to project strength internally, the succession struggle may ultimately limit their capacity for a coordinated, sustained campaign abroad."
David Riggs, Former CIA Operations Officer: "This is a catastrophic failure of deterrence. The administration's gamble has unleashed chaos we are utterly unprepared for. To think we can decapitate the leadership of a nation-state and only face 'low-level cyber attacks' is a dangerously naive fantasy. We've opened a Pandora's box of blowback."
Sarah Chen, Security Analyst at Global Risk Insights: "The immediate focus is on force protection for U.S. troops in the region and critical infrastructure cybersecurity at home. However, the longer-term strategic dilemma is how a destabilized Iran affects everything from global oil markets to nuclear non-proliferation efforts. The regional order is being rewritten in real-time."
(Reporting by Jana Winter and David Brunnstrom; Editing by Don Durfee and Christian Schmollinger)