US-Iran conflict pushes Gulf states to reconsider security alliances, analysts say
Analysts say the recent war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is likely to accelerate Gulf states' efforts to diversify their security partnerships, as the region grapples with the fallout from a conflict that directly impacted several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations.
As Washington and Tehran engage in talks toward a lasting agreement, GCC states — which came under Iranian fire during the war — are expanding their diplomatic and military relationships amid persistent uncertainty. Even before the conflict, Saudi Arabia signed a defense pact with Pakistan, a move that could broaden to include other regional partners.
For years, Gulf countries have procured defense systems from European nations while maintaining cordial ties with Russia and China. Experts argue that this war will likely cement that multi-vector approach — not as a replacement for the United States, but as a hedge against overreliance on a single guarantor.
Anna Jacobs Khalaf, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, stressed that seeking new security partners is not aimed at sidelining Washington. “The focus for countries like Saudi Arabia is the regional balance of power and pushing back on both Iran and Israel,” she told Al Jazeera. “This doesn't mean replacing the US with Pakistan; it means diversifying partnerships and setting up platforms like the so-called quad group of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, Egypt and Pakistan. It also means developing their own domestic defensive capabilities and fostering more regional autonomy.”
The war, which erupted on February 28, saw Iranian strikes targeting military bases hosting US troops, along with civilian infrastructure such as airports, energy facilities, and hotels in several Gulf states. Even after Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) earlier this month to end hostilities, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched missiles and drones at targets in Bahrain and Kuwait during skirmishes with US forces.
Beyond Iran, Gulf capitals increasingly view Israel as a source of instability. Last year, Israel bombed the Qatari capital Doha in an attempt to kill Hamas leaders during US-backed Gaza ceasefire negotiations. President Donald Trump later said he was “very unhappy” with the strikes on Qatar — a major non-NATO ally — and denied approving or having prior knowledge of the attack.
Jacobs Khalaf said the decision by the US and Israel to strike Iran, paired with Tehran's retaliatory closure of the Strait of Hormuz, created an “unprecedented security crisis” for GCC members. “The US and Israeli war on Iran and its hugely negative impact on Gulf states has convinced some regional capitals that they want to shift away from a US-centric security architecture,” she said. “The Iran war is making some Gulf states question the value of the US as a security guarantor.”
Annelle Sheline, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, echoed the sentiment. She predicted that GCC countries will likely seek to “diversify” alliances and deepen ties with China, Turkiye, and Europe. “I suspect that the Gulf will want to maintain its security relationship with the United States, but that it will no longer want to be in a position where it is relying on the United States,” she told Al Jazeera. She added that US forces in the region not only proved “unreliable” in preventing Iranian attacks, but “actually, the presence of the US military in Gulf countries had the opposite of a deterrent effect. These military bases became targets.”
Despite the anger over Iranian attacks, Gulf countries have kept lines of communication open with Tehran, even at the security level. Several GCC states are moving to mend ties and deepen economic relations with their neighbor across the Gulf. Some experts suggest investments may prove a more effective deterrent than weapons. If Gulf and Iranian economic interests become intertwined, Sheline explained, Tehran would think twice before striking the region. “Gulf states are likely to try a different approach, whereby they try to make it more costly for Iran to strike them in the future by tying themselves more closely to Iran, such as through electricity infrastructure,” she said.
US Vice President JD Vance alluded to that strategy in a recent interview, noting that Gulf countries have welcomed the MoU between Washington and Tehran. “The Emiratis — by far the most hawkish, by far the most pro-Israel country in the GCC — they're having conversations with the Iranians that have never happened before, including with the IRGC, about various types of economic incentives,” Vance said last week. “'Here's what we'd need to see to make your country investable' — and the Iranians come back and say, 'OK, yeah, we're willing to do all those things.'”
The US itself appears at a crossroads with its posture in the region. Last year, Trump's National Security Strategy emphasized that Washington no longer views the Middle East as a geopolitical priority, arguing that foreign policy resources must shift to more pressing areas — namely the Western Hemisphere. At the same time, the US has a longstanding commitment to Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to abide by the MoU's demands for a regional ceasefire, including in Lebanon. Almost as soon as the MoU was signed, Israel's allies in Washington mobilized against diplomacy, arguing that Israel should be allowed to continue its military campaigns.
Trump's team pushed back against some of the criticism. “The Israelis and the United States, we have a lot of shared interests, but we also have some situations where our interests diverge,” Vance told Fox News earlier this month. Nonetheless, the Trump administration has backed a separate agreement between Lebanon and Israel that effectively gives Israel freedom of action in Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms — a condition that appears at odds with the MoU's call for a ceasefire.
Some of Netanyahu's right-wing allies have openly opposed the MoU. The Israeli prime minister has tried to strike a balance, repeatedly thanking Trump for the war with Iran while stressing that Israel will continue to pursue its own policies in Lebanon and beyond. Sheline said that if the ceasefire deal leads to a comprehensive agreement with Iran, the US may finally be able to step away from the Middle East — but Israel could act as a spoiler to keep tensions alive. “The big question mark is Israel,” she said. She added that if the US pressures Israel to prevent Netanyahu from torpedoing the deal, Washington could take a step back and allow “regional countries to take greater responsibility for their own security in a way that is much more sustainable.”
For the Gulf, Israel's militarism has increasingly been seen as a threat to the entire Middle East, especially after the 2025 Doha attack and the war with Iran. “Many Gulf states feel very threatened by Israel's increasingly aggressive posture in the region,” said Jacobs Khalaf. “Israel's destruction in Gaza since October 7, its entrenching and expanding occupation of Palestinian lands and its attacks on both Lebanon and Syrian territory are hugely threatening and unacceptable to all the Gulf states, even those that have normalized relations with Israel.”